Brown a 74% Favorite in Mass. Senate Race
Flood of polls come in favoring GOP
By Kevin Spak, Newser User
Posted Jan 19, 2010 7:43 AM CST
Updated Jan 19, 2010 7:52 AM CST
Massachusetts State Senator Scott Brown, R-Wrentham, campaigns outside the T.D. Garden before a Boston Bruins hockey game in Boston, Mass., Monday, Jan. 18, 2010.   (AP Photo/Robert F. Bukaty)

(Newser) – Scott Brown is now a 3:1 favorite to win today’s Senate race in Massachusetts, according to FiveThirtyEight.com’s much-vaunted forecasting model. A host of recent polls give Coakley steadily worsening numbers, so the site, which correctly predicted all 35 Senate races in 2008, rates the race as “Lean GOP.” But Nate Silver warns that there’s “a higher-than-usual chance of large, correlated errors in the polling.”

Silver notes, for example, that pollsters are more error-prone in special elections, and that his model itself may be too slow for the Massachusetts race. “Voters and political operatives should continue to proceed as though every vote matters,” he cautions, "so we are still well within the range where small, decimal-point shifts in turnout could have a comparatively large impact.”

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Comments
Showing 3 of 33 comments
RufusT.Firefly
Jan 20, 2010 12:51 PM CST
Interesting how Brown's campaign is using part of Obama's campaign image. Look at the design of the campaign poster behind him.
LReyes
Jan 19, 2010 11:37 AM CST
If this fascist Scott Brown becomes the next senator for Massachusetts, i hope the LGBT community will take notice & protest his "Anti-Gay" agenda!
suzcob
Jan 19, 2010 10:25 AM CST
Again, Brown is the best choice for America if he is true to his word. This is war against the Progressive Movement which is a catastrophe for our Country and our liberty!