Former fed chairman Alan Greenspan warned this weekend that the US is headed for a double-dip recession, which might be frightening news, if we didn’t have a conflicting opinion—from former Fed chairman Alan Greenspan! Just 4 months ago, Greenspan said odds of a double-dip recession had fallen drastically. “Greenspan appears to have taken to heart the old adage that ‘if you can’t forecast well, forecast often,'” writes Jeremy Warner of the Telegraph.
This is just Greenspan’s latest flip-flop. In March 2007, he said there was only a 33% chance of a recession. He upped that to 50% in May 2008, a seemingly smart prediction. “Unfortunately, he then spoilt this rare insight into the blindingly obvious by saying prospects of a severe recession had receded markedly,” Warner writes. Greenspan doesn’t seem to realize that forecasting is “a mug’s game.” Maybe if he’d spent his Fed tenure focusing on present conditions instead of imagined future ones, he would have noticed that his policies had sent the credit markets spinning out of control.