Iran's missile force, it turns out, is far from destroyed, according to classified US intelligence cited by the New York Times. The assessments, prepared for lawmakers this month, indicate Tehran has restored access to 30 of 33 missile sites along the Strait of Hormuz, with around 90% of underground missile storage and launch facilities around the country at least partially functional. Iran has also retained roughly 70% of both its mobile launchers and prewar missile stockpile, according to US intelligence, contradicting President Trump's repeated claims that Iran's military has been "decimated" and "crushed." Iran has claimed its missile stockpile is now at 120% of prewar levels, per the Independent.
The findings raise doubts about the long-term impact of the US-Israeli air campaign, which has burned through large quantities of American precision munitions that will take years to replace, at a cost of $29 billion. A CIA analysis cited by the Washington Post concludes Iran can withstand the US naval blockade for at least several more months without facing serious economic hardship. The intelligence underscores the risks if the fragile cease-fire collapses and Washington considers renewed strikes, even as Trump publicly disputes it. Trump last week claimed Iran retained only 18% or 19% of its missiles and that its economy was "crashing," per the Post. On Tuesday, he said it was "virtual treason" to report that Iran is "doing well."