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Xi Raises Worry About 'Thucydides Trap' With US

It's the idea that friction between rising and established powers leads to war
Posted May 14, 2026 6:21 AM CDT
Xi Raises Worry About 'Thucydides Trap' With US
President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping visit the Temple of Heaven in Beijing Thursday, May 14, 2026.   (Brendan Smialowski/Pool Photo via AP)

President Trump and Xi Jinping had by all accounts a cordial first meeting on Thursday in China. Already, in fact, Trump has invited Xi and his wife to visit the US in September, notes the AP. But at least one "point of tension" emerged, in the words of the Wall Street Journal—the issue of Taiwan. The official US readout from the initial meeting didn't mention the issue, but Beijing's readout had a much different take. China's Foreign Ministry said Xi stressed to Trump that Taiwan was the "most important issue" between the two nations.

  • "If it is handled properly, the bilateral relationship will enjoy overall stability," reads the Chinese statement. "Otherwise, the two countries will have clashes and even conflicts, putting the entire relationship in great jeopardy."

  • The New York Times sees it as a "stark reminder that Taiwan, a self-governing island claimed by China, is a red line." The message cut into the upbeat framing of what Trump is calling potentially the "best ever" summit focused on trade and Iran. Trump did not publicly address the Taiwan warning or answer questions about it.
  • In his own public comments, Xi said he hoped the two nations could avoid the "Thucydides Trap," the idea that friction between an emerging power and an established power often leads to war, reports CNBC.
  • In its coverage, Politico reports that US allies are "worried that Trump could end up disavowing US support for Taiwan, perhaps even inadvertently," during the summit. The story notes that Taiwan's semiconductor industry is vital to the American tech sector's supply chain.

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