Just days after the end of the Republican National Convention, it looks like Mitt Romney's "bounce" is pretty modest, writes Nate Silver for the New York Times. Rasmussen's poll produced the best result, giving Romney a five-point swing and a three-percentage-point lead now. Ipsos now has Romney one point behind President Obama, for a three-point gain. And Gallup still has Obama one point in the lead, although, as Gallup uses a seven-day window, its poll is only halfway through the convention.
Add up all the results, preliminary though they may be, and Silver is giving Obama a 73.1% chance at winning the election in November, just off his highest rating of the year, 73.6% on Aug. 16. "But whatever assumptions you make about a convention bounce, it introduces more noise into the polling," says Silver, noting that next week "the pressure will then be on Mr. Obama."