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WEDNESDAY, NOVEMBER 25, 2009
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NEWS ABOUT: poll numbers

poll numbers stories: 59 news summaries

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ANALYSIS

 Oh, No: They Could Tie 

The 1% chance of Obama and McCain fighting to a draw has web humming

Sep 26, 08 2:07 PM CDT
(Newser) - It’s not inconceivable that the 2008 election could end in an electoral tie. OK, granted, the odds are roughly 99-1, but that 1% chance is enough to send politics geeks flocking to sites such as FiveThirtyEight.com, which conduct complex electoral simulations based on the latest polling, the More »

MORE ABOUT:
electoral college • Election 2008 • poll numbers

ANALYSIS

 Convention Bounce 
 Small, Fading Fast 

Polls see Obama's approval grow by below-average 3%-4%, then diminish over weekend

Sep 2, 08 9:49 AM CDT
(Newser) - Barack Obama enjoyed a noticeable, but below-average, bounce in opinion polls after last week’s Democratic National Convention, Politico reports—but the gains appear to be already diminishing. Obama has risen 4% in Gallup’s daily tracking poll, 3% in a CBS survey—smaller than the average 5-6% convention bounce.... More »

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Barack Obama • John McCain • Democratic National Convention • Obama 2008 • Election 2008 • poll numbers • poll bump • Republican National Convention

Biden By the Numbers: A Solid Choice

VP will bring Dems together and garner Independent votes

Aug 24, 08 11:18 AM CDT
(Newser) - Some argued Hillary Clinton was Barack Obama’s best VP choice because she could unite the Dems. But in crunching Rasmussen's favorable-unfavorable numbers, the New Republic finds Joe Biden can do that almost as well, while pulling in more independent voters and keeping Obama backers in the fold. Biden scores... More »

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Barack Obama • Hillary Clinton • Joe Biden • running mate • Election 2008 • poll numbers • vice presidential candidate

OPINION

 Noonan: Why McCain Is Rising


Aug 22, 08 8:21 AM CDT
(Newser) - The race for the White House has just become a “real” one, with John McCain climbing in the polls and Barack Obama sinking. Why? Because people are finally “paying attention,” writes Peggy Noonan in the Wall Street Journal. In McCain, Americans are seeing a familiar face: the... More »

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Barack Obama • John McCain • Peggy Noonan • poll numbers

 Poll: McCain Takes 5-Point Lead

Negative campaign erases Obama's July edge

Aug 20, 08 8:35 AM CDT
(Newser) - John McCain has erased Barack Obama’s 7-point July advantage to take a 46%-41% lead in the latest Reuters/Zogby poll, Reuters reports. McCain has turned around a perceived  weakness on economy to now be favored by a 9% margin on the economy. The poll was taken Thursday through Saturday, as... More »

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Barack Obama • John McCain • poll • John Zogby • Election 2008 • poll numbers

analysis

Running Mate 'Bounce' Doesn't Climb Very High

Poll surge noticeable but brief: Gallup

Aug 11, 08 7:53 PM CDT
(Newser) - Much ink has been spilled over Barack Obama and John McCain’s upcoming VP selections, but a running mate is not a game-changing choice, the Chicago Tribune reports. History suggests the effect on opinion polls will be noticeable but not huge: Gallup shows recent candidates getting an average 5% bump... More »

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Barack Obama • John McCain • John Edwards • Dick Cheney • John Kerry • Bob Dole • running mate • vice presidential sweepstakes • George W. Bush • poll numbers • Gallup poll • vice presidential candidate • Jack Kemp

Low-Income Workers Favor Obama

Most doubt outcome of election will change their personal finances

Aug 4, 08 10:22 AM CDT
(Newser) - Low-income workers favor Barack Obama over John McCain by a whopping 2 to 1 margin, a new Washington Post poll shows, but they doubt that Obama or any other politician will improve their lives. Obama owes much of his edge to overwhelming support from black and Hispanic voters, but... More »

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Barack Obama • John McCain • poll • demographics • low income voters • poll numbers

Polls Show No Bump From Obama Trip

He still holds 5% edge; McCain attacks don't stick either

Jul 31, 08 9:51 AM CDT
(Newser) - Neither Barack Obama’s foreign tour nor John McCain’s harsh attacks of it have made a dent in the polls, CNN reports. In the first poll conducted entirely after the trip, Obama holds a 51-44% lead, a mincing step up from last month’s 50-45% edge. His numbers on... More »

MORE ABOUT:
Barack Obama • John McCain • poll • Election 2008 • poll numbers

analysis

Economy May Be McCain's Achilles Heel

He's seen as weak on pocketbook woes, now top priority with voters

Jul 25, 08 11:43 AM CDT
(Newser) - Americans are so worried about the economy they’re returning to a pre-9/11 mindset in which pocketbook issues trump national security—and that doesn’t bode well for John McCain, Politico reports. His predicament is beginning to look oddly like the reelection campaigns of George HW Bush and Jimmy Carter:... More »

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John McCain • McCain 2008 • Election 2008 • economy • poll numbers

OPINION

Forget the Polls: Obama's a Nov. Shoo-In

Political scientist's odd metric suggests history is on Democrat's side

Jul 21, 08 3:08 PM CDT
(Newser) - It’s hard to reconcile Barack Obama’s narrow lead in the polls with the massive enthusiasm that seems to surround his campaign, so Clive Cook of the Financial Times has some advice: Ignore the polls. Midsummer polls are notoriously worthless, he says. Instead, he touts political scientist Alan Abramowitz’... More »

MORE ABOUT:
Barack Obama • John McCain • Obama 2008 • McCain 2008 • poll numbers • election history

Cellphone Users Are Missing From Polls

Overlooked bloc
could give Obama a hidden 2% boost

Jul 14, 08 7:58 AM CDT
(Newser) - Pollsters are setting themselves up for an embarrassment, Salon predicts, by using only landlines in surveys, ignoring the 15% of American adults who use only cellphones. That 15% is predominantly young, full of students, and disproportionately black and Hispanic. They are not, in other words, likely McCain voters. Add this... More »

MORE ABOUT:
Barack Obama • poll • Obama 2008 • demographics • Election 2008 • young voters • poll numbers

As Dems Hog Spotlight,
GOP Is Under Siege

Republicans are losing seats held for decades

May 10, 08 6:25 PM CDT
(Newser) - While Democrats sparkle in the media glare, the Republican Party is quietly crumbling off-stage, Politico reports. President Bush’s numbers are lower than Richard Nixon’s before he resigned, and the GOP is losing House seats that it has held for 20 or 30 years. “The anti-Republican mood is... More »

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John McCain • congressman • House of Representatives • Republican Party • Election 2008 • presidential election • George W. Bush • poll numbers

 Clinton More Likely 
 to Beat McCain: Poll 

Hillary up 50%-41% on GOP candidate; Obama in virtual tie at 46%-44%

Apr 28, 08 1:10 PM CDT
(Newser) - Hillary Clinton opened a commanding lead in a heads-up race against John McCain in the latest AP-Ipsos poll, leading the GOP’s presumptive nominee 50%-41%. Barack Obama, meanwhile, edged McCain just 46%-44%, a statistical tie. Today's numbers are a gift for Clinton, forwarding her argument that she would be more... More »

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AP Ipsos poll • Clinton 2008 • Obama 2008 • McCain 2008 • Election 2008 • poll numbers

ANALYSIS

Pennsylvania: When a Win Is Not a Win

Clear-cut margin of victory needed to be convincing

Apr 22, 08 1:00 PM CDT
(Newser) - Polls agree that Hillary Clinton should win the popular vote today in Pennsylvania, but watchers say that victory won't be clear-cut. Adam Nagourney in the New York Times and Peter Wallsten in the Los Angeles Times predict that while an outright Clinton loss would end her candidacy and a 10-point... More »

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Barack Obama • Hillary Clinton • superdelegates • blue-collar vote • Pennsylvania primary • poll numbers

 Obama Holds 5-Point Lead
 Over Hillary 

Hopeful grabs rare tie with McCain in Gallup poll

Apr 5, 08 5:56 PM CDT
(Newser) - Barack Obama held a 5-point lead over Hillary Clinton in the latest Gallup poll and grabbed a rare 45%-45% tie with John McCain. McCain usually polls higher than either Democrat, and currently edges Clinton 47% to 45%. The numbers are a sign that Obama has overcome his January/February swoon, largely... More »

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Barack Obama • Hillary Clinton • John McCain • Obama 2008 • Election 2008 • poll numbers • Gallup poll

 Clinton's  Approval Rating
 Hits 2-Year Low 

Fallout from Bosnia controversy figures in; Pa. race tightens

Apr 1, 08 2:45 PM CDT
(Newser) - Hillary Clinton's approval rating has dropped to its lowest level since April 2006, with 29% of poll respondents saying they have a very negative opinion of her, compared to 15% for Barack Obama and 12% for John McCain, the Wall Street Journal reports. Another poll released last week shows 29%... More »

MORE ABOUT:
Barack Obama • Hillary Clinton • Bosnia • Pennsylvania primary • approval ratings • poll numbers • phoniness

Obama Nails 10-Point
National Lead
in Gallup Poll

It's his biggest
margin this year

Mar 31, 08 4:43 AM CDT
(Newser) - Barack Obama jumped to his largest national lead of the year in a new Gallup poll, pulling ahead of Hillary Clinton 52% to 42%. The figure marks the Illinois senator’s third consecutive lead, and the first double-digit lead since Hillary chalked up a 11% lead over Barack in early... More »

MORE ABOUT:
Barack Obama • Hillary Clinton • Democrats • Patrick Leahy • poll numbers • Gallup

OPINION

In Democrats' Primary Mess, Democracy Is Real Loser

Front-loaded slate had too many vote too soon

Mar 24, 08 2:19 PM CDT
(Newser) - Info on the Democratic candidates is pouring out, too late for most voters to get much out of it, Walter Shapiro complains in Salon. "Most Democratic voters will have chosen between Clinton and Obama back in February," he gripes, and the voting that produced Obama's delegate lead is... More »

MORE ABOUT:
Barack Obama • Hillary Clinton • Democratic presidential primaries • Democratic campaign • superdelegates • poll numbers

Obama Recalls Sparring With Preacher

Candidate says he
had to 'agree to disagree' with Wright

Mar 24, 08 10:41 AM CDT
(Newser) - “This is not a crackpot church,” Barack Obama told a conservative Philadelphia radio host in an interview defending Trinity Church, Politico reports. The Democratic hopeful says that despite Rev. Jeremiah Wright’s “very offensive views,” he built “one of the finest churches in Chicago. Witness... More »

MORE ABOUT:
Barack Obama • Chicago • Bill Clinton • church • Jeremiah Wright • Trinity United Church of Christ • poll numbers

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