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NEWS ABOUT: Nate Silver

Nate Silver Bares His Own JournoList Posts

In what may be the first of many confessionals

(Newser) - With the Daily Caller basically making a business out of leaking comments from emails from the JournoList—a supposedly private email list for left-leaning journalists. So list member Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight.com decided to go through his own log of 150 or so posts, looking for inflammatory, damning and... More »

Pentagon Blew $4.4M on Useless 'Gaydar' Survey

Survey just tests unit cohesion, homophobia

(Newser) - The Pentagon is coming under fire for blowing $4.4 million on a survey that asks troops various questions about Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell. Many are calling the poll biased—“It is simply impossible to imagine a survey with such derogatory and insulting wording, assumptions, and insinuations,... More »

LeBron Made a Costly 'Decision'

Unpopular move could cost James lots of sponsorships

(Newser) - Maybe LeBron James really does only care about winning, because if he cares about his money or his image, he’s made a really big mistake. LeBron’s Q rating, which measures how many people know and favorably view a person, was a stratospheric 34 until the decision to leave... More »

Don't Trust Any Poll That Omits Cellphones

They're ignoring 25% of the populace

(Newser) - Yeah, it's expensive, but pollsters need to start calling cellphones. According to the latest CDC data, 23% of US adults, or 25% of US households are cellphone-only, writes Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight.com . Add in “cellphone-mostly” households and that jumps to 40%—and it could be even higher by... More »

Fast Food Worse Than the Double Down

Nate Silver finds the KFC monstrosity is really only average

(Newser) - So by now you've heard of—or God help you, sampled—the gluttonous monstrosity known as KFC's Double Down , but how does it stack up in the less-than-healthy world of fast food? Nate Silver at FiveThirtyEight runs the numbers, creating an index of fat, cholesterol, and sodium in which the... More »

50 Best Places to Live in New York

Number cruncher devises elaborate system to rate neighborhoods on satisfaction

(Newser) - If you live in New York, the fact that Nate Silver has concluded that Park Slope is the most "satisfying" neighborhood in the city is hot stuff—especially if you own real estate in Park Slope. But if you don't, what's pretty hot is the methodology the numbers genius... More »

Dems' Enthusiasm High, but Republicans' Higher

(Newser) - New polling shows record enthusiasm for the midterm elections, particularly among Republican voters. Among Democrats, 57% are “more enthusiastic than usual” about November, the highest percentage Gallup has ever recorded for them in a midterm. The problem? Republicans stand at a whopping 69%. This is obviously not great news... More »

Don't Get Too Excited Over Just One Poll

It's too early to tell if bump in support for reform will stick

(Newser) - Much ado has been made over yesterday's Gallup poll, which showed 49% in favor of the health care bill to 40% opposed, but Republicans shouldn't freak out just yet, writes Nate Silver. Yes, it shows a big increase in support for reform, but it's just one poll, "and even... More »

Obama's Pull in Home Districts Swayed Reps' Votes

Obama's share of vote in 2008 best predictor of House Democrats' positions

(Newser) - Barack Obama may have sown the seeds to last night's victory with the one in 2008: House Democrats in districts Obama carried were much more likely to vote in favor of health reform. Retiring members aside, Nate Silver writes, “all 12 Democrats running in a place where Obama received... More »

Democrats Who Vote 'No' May Be Vulnerable

Nate Silver identifies 10 seats, 6 in NY, subject to primary challenge

(Newser) - Some House Democrats could be in a pickle when it comes to reelection this year if they don’t vote for the health care reform bill this week, writes Nate Silver. He’s identified 10 who might face primary challenges based on their ambivalence about the legislation, pressure from activist... More »

US Dominates New Sports, Old Soviet Strongholds

US, Asia make radical gains over former Soviet Union in classic events

(Newser) - Nate Silver hears the “cynical perspectives” on the US’ record take of 37 medals at the Vancouver Olympics: that newfound dominance is based on the inclusion of “new-fangled sports" like snowboarding and short-track. It’s not particularly valid. If you look only at events contested in the 1988... More »

Scott Brown Changes the Senate Math

Moderate GOP votes up for grabs mean 56 could be Dems' new 60

(Newser) - Yesterday's Senate vote to end debate on the jobs bill showed that losing the supermajority may not be such a disaster for the Democrats after all, writes Nate Silver. Scott Brown joined four other moderate Republicans in voting to end a filibuster on Harry Reid's jobs bill, suggesting that a... More »

Health Care Still Alive? Nate Counts the Votes

Silver adds up House Dems who would support Senate bill

(Newser) - The math is pretty bleak for passage of the Senate version of health-care reform in the House—the last-ditch effort being considered to save it—but it’s not impossible that 218 votes could be wrangled, Nate Silver writes. One big hurdle is the “Stupak block,” which Silver... More »

Obama Will Urge House to Send Him Health Bill

Ramped up State of the Union indicates Senate-skipping strategy

(Newser) - The White House has essentially accepted the reality of a Scott Brown win in Massachusetts and is orchestrating some health care reform “ping-pong,” Nate Silver writes, urging the House to vote on the Senate bill as it stands so it can go straight to President Obama’s desk... More »

Brown a 74% Favorite in Mass. Senate Race

Flood of polls come in favoring GOP

(Newser) - Scott Brown is now a 3:1 favorite to win today’s Senate race in Massachusetts, according to FiveThirtyEight.com’s much-vaunted forecasting model. A host of recent polls give Coakley steadily worsening numbers, so the site, which correctly predicted all 35 Senate races in 2008, rates the race as... More »

Dems Could Actually Lose Kennedy Seat

Swing voters weak on Coakley—even some who back health care

(Newser) - Turnout remains the most important factor in the Massachusetts Senate election, but it’s not the only factor. The latest Rasmussen poll has Coakley ahead by just 2 points, despite an electorate that gives Barack Obama a 57% approval rating, notes Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight.com. In an election widely... More »

Divorce on Rise in States That Ban Gay Marriage

Massachusetts has country's lowest rate

(Newser) - The people arguing that gay marriage erodes the institution of marriage might be surprised to know that divorce rates are generally higher in states that have constitutional bans on same-sex marriage in place. Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight.com ran a quick analysis on state-by-state divorce rates and found that, though... More »

Gaffe May Sink Reid in Nevada

Majority leader can't afford to lose any black voters in 2010

(Newser) - Harry Reid’s already shaky reelection prospects just got a whole lot shakier, thanks to his observations on Barack Obama’s skin color. Reid isn’t facing a strong Republican opponent, but he’s been behind in the polls for a while now anyway, notes Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight.com... More »

There's Not More Extremists, Just More Internet

The fringes aren't more prevalent, but they are more visible

(Newser) - With all the left- and right-wing "extremism" out there, the media love pushing the narrative that "the country is coming apart at the seams! The center is dying!” But it’s not true, writes Nate Silver. A glance at long-running polls show Americans identify with the fringes... More »

Blue Dogs Top Dems' Most Valuable List

But others, like turncoat Parker Griffith, can feel free to take a hike

(Newser) - How worthless for Democrats was turncoat Rep. Parker Griffiths? To find out, Nate Silver created a formula for determining the Democrats’ MVP for the year in the House. Choosing 10 key votes, he counted how often each rep votes with the party, then adjusted the tally based on how conservative... More »

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