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Nate Silver

Sep 21, 2012 1:51 PM CDT

Obama's Lead Is Starting to Look Real

Nate Silver's model shows the president's chance of victory is strong

(Newser) - President Obama has been doing very well in the polls lately—and it's looking less and less like the product of a post-convention bounce. According to the FiveThirtyEight prediction model, Obama now has a 76.1% chance of winning reelection, up from 75.2% on Wednesday, Nate Silver writes...

Bachmann's
Lead Nearly
Gone: Poll

minnesota election

Sep 10, 2012 5:21 PM CDT

Bachmann's Lead Nearly Gone: Poll

Democratic rival Jim Graves wins over independents

(Newser) - Michele Bachmann may be right about a political storm coming , but it's apparently headed her way. The Minnesota congresswoman is leading Democratic rival Jim Graves by only 2 points after support among independents dropped from +15% to -4%, according to a new poll commissioned by Graves and Salon. What'...

Obama Grabs
6-Point Lead

cnn poll

Sep 10, 2012 3:48 PM CDT

Obama Grabs 6-Point Lead

Romney's vision seems less optimistic than the president's: poll

(Newser) - CNN's latest poll gives President Obama a 4% post-convention bounce and a 6% lead over Mitt Romney, with the usual caveats that convention bounces rarely last. But the poll contains a few neat factoids about Obama's bump and Romney's slump after the conventions, reports CNN :

Public's First Reaction to Ryan Worse Than Palin

Poll Numbers

Aug 13, 2012 2:21 PM CDT

Public's First Reaction to Ryan Worse Than Palin

But polls conflict somewhat

(Newser) - Mitt Romney didn't exactly wow the public by picking Paul Ryan as his VP—at least according to one poll. Just 39% think Ryan is an "excellent" or "pretty good" pick, compared to 42% who think he's a "fair" or "poor" one, according to...

Swing States:
Romney Doesn't
Care About Us

Poll Numbers

Aug 1, 2012 9:43 AM CDT

Swing States: Romney Doesn't Care About Us

Voters back Obama, and really back his plan to hike taxes on top 2%

(Newser) - Barack Obama is leading in Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Florida, in part because voters don't think Mitt Romney is looking out for them, according to a new Quinnipiac / New York Times /CBS News poll. Both candidates polled fairly evenly when it came to how voters thought they'd handle...

Poll: Obama Up
by 6 Points

Jul 25, 2012 2:32 AM CDT

Poll: Obama Up by 6 Points

Negatives up for Obama and Romney, but overall, few changes

(Newser) - The Supreme Court ruling on ObamaCare, the shooting at the Aurora theater, the Bain Capital debate, and a mediocre jobs report have hit the headlines in the last 30 days, but none of it seems to be having much of an effect on the presidential polls. President Obama is up...

Poll: If Aliens Invade,
Americans Want Obama

Jun 28, 2012 10:42 AM CDT

Poll: If Aliens Invade, Americans Want Obama

More than a third of respondents believe in UFOs

(Newser) - Americans may be divided on President Obama's handling of the economy, but if aliens invade, he's their guy. A whopping 65% think Obama would be better at handling an alien invasion than Mitt Romney, according to a new National Geographic poll spotted by the AFP . And for more...

Ignore
Obama's
'13-Point
Lead'

nate silver

Jun 21, 2012 3:55 PM CDT

Ignore Obama's '13-Point Lead'

Nate Silver: Bloomberg poll doesn't mean much

(Newser) - Stats wiz Nate Silver has some serious doubts about Bloomberg's new poll showing President Obama with a 13-point lead over Mitt Romney. Silver's own analysis has Obama with just a slim lead over Romney, and little has changed over the past two weeks, he writes in his New ...

Obama Has Staggering 13-Point Lead Over Romney

new poll

Jun 20, 2012 9:02 AM CDT

Obama Has Staggering 13-Point Lead Over Romney

But take poll with 'big grain of salt': Kornacki

(Newser) - The political world is buzzing today over a new Bloomberg poll that shows Barack Obama clobbering Mitt Romney by a whopping 53% to 40% margin. This comes despite voters widely disapproving of Obama's handling of the economy—only 43% approve, while 53% disapprove. So why is Obama winning? Because...

What Defines Success?
Salary of $50K-$70K a Year

What Defines Success? Salary of $50K-$70K a Year

Majority of workers says fewer than six figures equals success: survey

(Newser) - Most Americans don't think they need to make six figures to be successful. A new poll of 5,772 workers found that a little less than 30% would define success as raking in between $50,000 and $70,000 a year; another 23% said they'd be happy with...

World Has Soured on Obama

Poll Numbers

Jun 13, 2012 2:52 PM CDT

World Has Soured on Obama

Most disapprove of drone strikes, believe US power has faded

(Newser) - The world doesn't like President Obama nearly as much now that it's gotten to know him. Approval of Obama's international policies fell by double digits in every part of the world in a new Pew Research Center poll . Europe is still broadly supportive of Obama, but approval...

Supreme Court's
Approval Rating
Now Just 44%

Jun 8, 2012 12:42 PM CDT

Supreme Court's Approval Rating Now Just 44%

Public thinks lifetime terms were a mistake

(Newser) - The public is more suspicious than ever of the Supreme Court. In a new New York Times/CBS poll , just 44% said they approved of the job the court was doing. The drop continues a big long-term decline: from 66% in the late 1980s to about 50% by 2000. Moreover, a...

Nate Silver's 1st Forecast:
Obama By a Nose

Analysis

Jun 7, 2012 1:50 PM CDT

Nate Silver's 1st Forecast: Obama By a Nose

FiveThirtyEight guru lays out 2012 model

(Newser) - OK, it's official, the general election season has begun: Nate Silver has started forecasting it. The stats guru today unveiled his first, tenuous prediction for the 2012 race: That President Obama is ever so slightly favored to win a second term. The model currently gives Obama a 60% chance...

Poll: 40%
of Americans Have No
Gay Friends

Jun 6, 2012 10:30 AM CDT

Poll: 40% of Americans Have No Gay Friends

...that puts them in the minority for 1st time

(Newser) - Are you close to someone who's gay? If not, you're now officially in the minority, according to a new CNN poll . Some 40% of respondents said they don't have any close friends or family members who are gay, and that's actually a pretty big decrease from...

Veterans Prefer
Romney, 58% to 34%

gallup poll

May 28, 2012 2:58 PM CDT

Veterans Prefer Romney, 58% to 34%

Mitt has the advantage among military vets, Gallup poll shows

(Newser) - President Obama and Mitt Romney both honored Memorial Day today, as a new Gallup poll shows that Romney has the advantage among military veterans. A big advantage, too, at 58% to 34%, the Christian Science Monitor reports. Veterans are an important part of the Republican base; they voted for...

No. of Pro-Choice
Americans Hits
Record Low

May 23, 2012 10:36 AM CDT

No. of Pro-Choice Americans Hits Record Low

Down to 41%, according to new Gallup poll

(Newser) - The number of Americans who identify themselves as pro-choice fell precipitously this year, dropping to an all-time Gallup low of 41%, according to a new poll . On the flip side, 50% said they were pro-life. When Gallup first started asking the question back in 1995, the numbers were dramatically different,...

Poll: Users
Don't Trust
Facebook

May 15, 2012 8:48 AM CDT

Poll: Users Don't Trust Facebook

And they don't click on sponsored content or ads

(Newser) - Investors are going wild for Facebook, but the site's actual users are less enthusiastic about its prospects, a new AP-CNBC poll reveals. Half of respondents said Facebook was overvalued at its presumed $100 billion valuation, and that shot up to 62% among active investors. Part of the reason they'...

Obama Winning Among Veterans

Poll Numbers

May 14, 2012 1:24 PM CDT

Obama Winning Among Veterans

Most believe Iraq war was unsuccessful

(Newser) - After a decade of war, America's troops aren't feeling very war-like. President Obama currently leads Mitt Romney among veterans who have served since the Gulf War by seven points—a wider lead than he has among the general populace—according to a new Reuters/Ipsos poll , and many say...

Voters Really Like Obama—
but Romney's Dead Even

New Poll

May 7, 2012 7:05 AM CDT

Voters Really Like Obama— but Romney's Dead Even

Obama, Romney dead even in new poll

(Newser) - Americans really like Barack Obama—they're just not sure they'll vote for him. In a new Politico/George Washington University poll , a whopping 70% say they approve of Obama personally, and 56% approve strongly. That's compared to only 29% who strongly approve of Romney. But when it came...

Romney
Grabs Lead
in Pennsylvania

poll numbers

Apr 5, 2012 7:57 AM CDT

Romney Grabs Lead in Pennsylvania

Meanwhile, Santorum says 'damn right' we cling to guns, religion

(Newser) - Bad news for Rick Santorum: Mitt Romney has taken the lead in Santorum's own home state of Pennsylvania. Romney is at 42% support and Santorum at 37% in the latest Public Policy Poll , followed by Ron Paul with 9% and Newt Gingrich at 6%. That's a gain of...