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2022 a Great Year
for Those Who
Dislike Political Polls
Oct 25, 2022 4:36 PM CDT
2022 a Great Year for Those Who Dislike Political Polls
FiveThirtyEight's forecasters find the lack of reliable information 'disconcerting'
- There’s been much ado lately about the dire state of polling —including a general lack of confidence among the public, pundits, and pollsters themselves that polls can be trusted at all. For those who simply detest polls and wish they would all go away, the current state of...
Election Feature That
'Triggered' Dems Is Gone
Oct 24, 2020 3:00 PM CDT
Election Feature That 'Triggered' Dems Is Gone
America can say goodbye to 'the Needle'
- The one thing most likely to conjure nightmares of the 2016 election night for opponents of President Trump is the Needle, the AP reports. A graphic on the
New York Times
' website, the Needle measured in real time the probability of victory for Trump or Hillary Clinton as votes...
A 50-50 Senate Split Is as
Good a Bet as Any: Forecast
Sep 18, 2020 5:35 PM CDT
A 50-50 Senate Split Is as Good a Bet as Any: Forecast
For now, Democrats have slight edge in race for control
- Democrats have a slight edge at the moment in their effort to take control of the Senate from Republicans, but many outcomes—including a tie—remain possible. That's the upshot from FiveThirtyEight , which kicked off its Senate forecast Friday. The most likely result from the November elections is a...
2020 Paradox: Biden Trends
Down in Polls, but Odds Go Up
Feb 18, 2020 1:31 PM CST
2020 Paradox: Biden Trends Down in Polls, but Odds Go Up
538: No single candidate has been able to grab momentum yet, good news for former VP
- Now that the dust has settled on Iowa and New Hampshire, a flurry of new polls suggests that the news for Joe Biden isn't as bleak as some think, according to an analysis at FiveThirtyEight . The reason? "They're not showing that any candidate has grabbed a ton...
Democratic Surge Isn't
Translating to Senate
Sep 13, 2018 10:40 AM CDT
Democratic Surge Isn't Translating to Senate
FiveThirtyEight sees Republicans with strong chance of retaining control
- The latest analysis from FiveThirtyEight.com about how the midterms will affect the Senate is good news for Republicans. The forecast gives the GOP a 67% chance of retaining control. Despite an expected strong performance by Democrats in House elections—one that could easily result in their party taking over...
Those Fortune Cookie 'Lucky
Numbers'? They're Not Unlucky
Aug 4, 2017 12:49 PM CDT
Those Fortune Cookie 'Lucky Numbers'? They're Not Unlucky
FiveThirtyEight's Walt Hickey analyzed 1,000-plus cookies and made some surprising finds
- Imagine you're so obsessed with fortune cookies, and the destinies they claim to foretell, that you order more than 1,000 of them to "unlock their mysteries." That's exactly what data journalist Walt Hickey did for FiveThirtyEight.com , picking through the prognostications (676 unique ones among...
Things Are Getting a Little
Heated Over Election Forecasts
Nov 6, 2016 5:09 PM CST
Things Are Getting a Little Heated Over Election Forecasts
FiveThirtyEight editor Nate Silver goes on Twitter rant against Huffington Post
- Nate Silver just unloaded on the Huffington Post after HuffPo writer Ryan Grim accused Silver of skewing polls to favor Donald Trump. HuffPo is currently predicting an almost certain victory for Hillary Clinton—two days before the election, it's calling a 98.3% chance for a Clinton victory. Silver'...
Think Trump Can't
Win? Think Again
Nov 3, 2016 1:03 AM CDT
Think Trump Can't Win? Think Again
FiveThirtyEight's Nate Silver lays out the scenarios—and Trump's 'no longer really a long shot'
- A national poll showed Donald Trump slightly ahead of Hillary Clinton on Tuesday, though, as Nate Silver points out at FiveThirtyEight , cherry-picking polls isn't necessarily indicative of an overall trend: Per the FiveThirtyEight model that analyzed a whole slew of surveys, Clinton appears to still be in the lead...
of Winning, per
Nate Silver: 79%
Jun 29, 2016 2:49 PM CDT
Hillary's Chances of Winning, per Nate Silver: 79%
Though he concedes 'there's a lot of football left to be played'
- If you're looking for odds on what's going to happen in Election 2016, you can ask a Las Vegas bookie or Nate Silver. And according to what the FiveThirtyEight.com numbers whiz told George Stephanopoulos on Wednesday's
Good Morning America
, Hillary Clinton has an almost 80% chance...
Meet the Guy With
May 25, 2016 3:03 PM CDT
Meet the Guy With Surprising Poll Numbers Against Clinton, Trump
Libertarian Gary Johnson nabbed 10% in 2 recent matchups
- There's a guy who's "having a good day" and emerging with surprising poll numbers against Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump, but he's someone FiveThirtyEight says is easy to confuse with "that plumber who fixed your running toilet last month or your spouse's weird friend...
Iowa Paper to
Trump: Get Out,
Jul 21, 2015 6:38 AM CDT
Iowa Paper to Trump: Get Out, 'Feckless Blowhard'
'Des Moines Register' says real estate mogul has 'polluted' our political process
Des Moines Register
, the publication Politico calls "Iowa's most influential newspaper" doesn't think Donald Trump should be in the race, period, and that he should "pull the plug on his bloviating side show." An editorial published last night says Trump's concentration on his...
Stat Team's New
Goal: Find Best
Burrito in US
Jun 7, 2014 9:58 AM CDT
Stat Team's New Goal: Find Best Burrito in US
Nate Silver and crew are on the case
- Thanks to his work in sports and politics, Nate Silver has become something of a rock-star statistician. Now, he's applying his number-crunching skills to a new project: food. Specifically, burritos. Members of his team at fivethirtyeight.com are working to determine the best burrito in the United States, and...
Jul 20, 2013 5:34 AM CDT
Stats Whiz Nate Silver Moving to ESPN
He'll likely be an Olbermann contributor
- Nate Silver, celebrity political statistician and former baseball analyst, has just thrown the
New York Times
a curveball: He's departing his longtime home at the paper for a gig at ESPN. Nate Silver's contract at the
, where he soared to fame for his election predictions, is due...
And the Cost to
NYC Will Be...?
Aug 26, 2011 1:59 PM CDT
Hurricane Irene: And the Cost to NYC Will Be...?
A 'bank shot' striking NYC would cost around $35B: Nate Silver
- If Hurricane Irene rolls into New York City—the nation's most densely populated area—it could threaten millions of lives, but also cost tens of billions of dollars and "tangibly increase the chance of a recession," Nate Silver writes on the
New York Times'
FiveThirtyEight blog. "...
Sorry, HuffPo Bloggers,
You're Not Worth Anything
Feb 13, 2011 6:41 AM CST
Sorry, HuffPo Bloggers, You're Not Worth Anything
Stats guru Nate Silver does the math on HuffPo's bloggers
- Huffington Post bloggers should stop whining about their lack of pay , even after the online site was bought by AOL for $315 million—they're just not worth it, writes stats king Nate Silver at the
New York Times
Silver crunched the numbers and estimates that the median blog post is...
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