Nate Silver – News Stories About Nate Silver - Page 3

Anti-Incumbent
Fever May Give
Dems a Shot
at House

Nate Silver

Jun 24, 2012 7:01 AM CDT

Anti-Incumbent Fever May Give Dems a Shot at House

Unlikely, says Silver, but House hard to analyze

(Newser) - Stats guru Nate Silver may have President Obama slightly favored to win re-election in November, and the battle for Senate in a tossup, but what does he think about the House? In his latest blog post in the New York Times , Silver calls Republicans "reasonably clear favorites" to keep...

Ignore
Obama's
'13-Point
Lead'

nate silver

Jun 21, 2012 3:55 PM CDT

Ignore Obama's '13-Point Lead'

Nate Silver: Bloomberg poll doesn't mean much

(Newser) - Stats wiz Nate Silver has some serious doubts about Bloomberg's new poll showing President Obama with a 13-point lead over Mitt Romney. Silver's own analysis has Obama with just a slim lead over Romney, and little has changed over the past two weeks, he writes in his New ...

Nate Silver's 1st Forecast:
Obama By a Nose

Analysis

Jun 7, 2012 1:50 PM CDT

Nate Silver's 1st Forecast: Obama By a Nose

FiveThirtyEight guru lays out 2012 model

(Newser) - OK, it's official, the general election season has begun: Nate Silver has started forecasting it. The stats guru today unveiled his first, tenuous prediction for the 2012 race: That President Obama is ever so slightly favored to win a second term. The model currently gives Obama a 60% chance...

Introducing 'Elastic States'

nate silver

May 21, 2012 1:47 PM CDT

Introducing 'Elastic States'

They're not swing states, but they have a lot of swing voters: Nate Silver

(Newser) - You already know all about swing states; today in the New York Times , Nate Silver introduces another important factor in the 2012 election: elastic states, which can produce difficult-to-predict results. Swing states, he explains, sometimes have very few swing voters (see North Carolina, where likely Democratic voters are fairly evenly...

Illinois Could
Finish Off
Santorum

Nate Silver

Mar 20, 2012 12:55 PM CDT

Illinois Could Finish Off Santorum

Nate Silver doesn't think the race is close

(Newser) - Look at a map, and you might think the race between Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum was relatively close. It's not. Do the math, and you'll see that, barring some kind of breakthrough, Santorum hasn't got a prayer, writes Nate Silver of the New York Times . A...

Gingrich Exit Wouldn't
Save Santorum

Nate Silver

Mar 8, 2012 12:04 PM CST

Gingrich Exit Wouldn't Save Santorum

Nate Silver does the math, and concludes that Santorum's in trouble

(Newser) - The math is not looking good for Rick Santorum, and his supporters are pressing Newt Gingrich to drop out of the race so as to change that. So Nate Silver of the New York Times decided to do the math and see just how much that would help Santorum's...

7 Super Tuesday Takeaways

Mar 7, 2012 7:48 AM CST

7 Super Tuesday Takeaways

Including how Mitt Romney is like a world-devouring super villain

(Newser) - Now that the dust has cleared, what did we learn on Super Tuesday ? Among the biggest takeaways:

Republicans don't love these guys: "It's almost like a bad version of Goldilocks. Nobody is just right," quips Philip Elliott of the AP . Exit polls showed that a

...

Romney Needs to Go Positive, Win Some Fans

Nate Silver

Feb 14, 2012 11:46 AM CST

Romney Needs to Go Positive, Win Some Fans

Nate Silver says Rick Santorum's voters are a lot more enthusiastic

(Newser) - Mitt Romney's got a big problem in his fight with Rick Santorum: His supporters are a lot less enthusiastic, observes Nate Silver of the New York Times . According to one poll, Santorum is beating Romney by 11 points among people who are definitely going to vote. Romney leads by...

Romney's In
for a Long,
Messy Fight

Nate Silver

Feb 8, 2012 12:01 PM CST

Romney's In for a Long, Messy Fight

Nate Silver on Mitt's horrific night in Colorado, Minnesota and Missouri

(Newser) - Even after last night, Mitt Romney will probably win the Republican nomination, but "it should be acknowledged that he had about the worst results conceivable," writes Nate Silver of the New York Times . He didn't win a single county in Minnesota, finishing 27 points behind Rick Santorum....

Romney Poised for
Decisive Victory

Florida Primary Preview

Jan 31, 2012 7:54 AM CST

Romney Poised for Decisive Victory

Florida primary polls looking good for Mitt, but there are subplots

(Newser) - Voters will be casting ballots in Florida today, and if polls are any indication, they'll be voting for Mitt Romney. But as always, there are other subplots to watch, too. Here's a rundown of what the pundits are saying:

Based on dozens of polls, Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight

...

Now All the Polls Love Mitt

nate silver

Jan 29, 2012 5:21 PM CST

Now All the Polls Love Mitt

Tally of polling data gives Romney 9% lead in Florida: Nate Silver

(Newser) - Not only does a recent Quinnipiac Poll give Mitt Romney the lead in the Florida primary. There are also automated polls, check-box polls, house-call polls, mouse-click polls, partisan polls, academic polls... Nate Silver has added them up in the New York Times and tallied a 9-point overall lead for Romney...

Stakes Colossal
for Newt Tonight

Debate Preview

Jan 26, 2012 10:41 AM CST

Stakes Colossal for Newt Tonight

Polls show Romney may have stopped his momentum ahead of CNN Florida debate

(Newser) - The GOP field will have its last debate before the Florida primary tonight, and it just might be a doozy. Here's why:

Newt Gingrich's polling advantage may have vanished. The latest CNN poll has Mitt Romney at 36% and Gingrich at 34%, a statistical tie, and a far

...

Gingrich
the Favorite
in Florida

Nate Silver

Jan 25, 2012 2:00 PM CST

Gingrich the Favorite in Florida

Nate Silver's model gives him a 75% chance of victory, with some 'buts'

(Newser) - With Florida less than a week away, Nate Silver is busily crunching the numbers, and while the polls are a tad contradictory, they do show a clear favorite: Newt Gingrich. Indeed, Silver's system gives Gingrich a whopping 75% chance of victory, although that "seems like too confident a...

Breaking Down the NH Results

Analysis

Jan 11, 2012 7:54 AM CST

Breaking Down the NH Results

It was a good night to be Mitt Romney

(Newser) - The New Hampshire primary is in the books, and pundits are poring over the results for insight. Here's what they're saying:

"Expectations, schmexpectations: (Mitt) Romney had a great night," writes Nate Silver of the New York Times . Romney missed his poll numbers, but was swiftly declared

...

Huntsman's
NH Surge:
Too Little,
Too Late

nate silver

Jan 9, 2012 11:20 AM CST

Huntsman's NH Surge: Too Little, Too Late

Nate Silver expects him to grab 15.6% of the vote, but that's not enough

(Newser) - With a matter of hours to go before the New Hampshire primary, Jon Huntsman appears to finally be seeing a surge of his own—but it may be too little, too late, observes Nate Silver in the New York Times . Recent polls are looking good for the former Utah governor:...

Why the Heck Is Perry Still In?

Nate Silver

Jan 5, 2012 1:55 PM CST

Why the Heck Is Perry Still In?

Nate Silver ponders whether the answer is political or personal

(Newser) - Normally when candidates say they're "reassessing" their campaign , they're done for, but for some reason Rick Perry is soldiering on . Why? Nate Silver of the New York Times contemplates that question today, posing two exaggerated hypothetical scenarios: Either a) It was personal. Perry prayed on the decision,...

In Iowa, Expect the Unexpected

Nate Silver

Jan 3, 2012 10:32 AM CST

In Iowa, Expect the Unexpected

...And a lot of spin afterward

(Newser) - History suggests that it doesn’t matter who actually wins tonight in Iowa—it matters who exceeds expectations, or fails to meet them. The media is always flabbergasted by strange Iowa finishes, but they shouldn’t be, writes Nate Silver of the New York Times , because thanks to unreliable polls...

Careful, Mitt: You Could Lose

Nate Silver

Dec 27, 2011 11:19 AM CST

Careful, Mitt: You Could Lose

Nate Silver doesn't think it's especially likely, but it's possible

(Newser) - Conventional wisdom has crowned Mitt Romney the inevitable Republican nominee. His stock on Intrade shot up to 72% last night, and one of his strategists recently boasted that he couldn’t “see any scenario where we’re not the nominee." But calm down guys, writes Nate Silver in...

Obama Is the Underdog

Nate Silver

Nov 3, 2011 9:40 AM CDT

Obama Is the Underdog

If economy falters, and Mitt Romney is the nominee, watch out

(Newser) - It’s too early for Nate Silver’s usual granular state-by-state election calculus, so the New York Times political prediction guru is looking at the big picture. Obama faces three main challenges: voters think he’s not up to the task, they’re terrified of the economy, and they’re...

Pundits, If You're So Sure Cain Will Lose, Take This Bet

nate silver

Oct 27, 2011 12:37 PM CDT

Pundits, If You're So Sure Cain Will Lose, Take This Bet

If he proves you wrong, promise to stop writing about politics: Nate Silver

(Newser) - Modern politics has never seen the likes of Herman Cain, writes Nate Silver at the New York Times . He has few "fundamentals"—key GOP endorsements, big fundraising, etc.—and yet he's been at or near the top of polls for a while now. He is, in...