Now All the Polls Love Mitt

Tally of polling data gives Romney 9% lead in Florida: Nate Silver
By Neal Colgrass,  Newser Staff
Posted Jan 29, 2012 5:21 PM CST
Now All the Polls Love Mitt
Newt Gingrich was laughing ... then.   (AP Photo/Matt Rourke)

Not only does a recent Quinnipiac Poll give Mitt Romney the lead in the Florida primary. There are also automated polls, check-box polls, house-call polls, mouse-click polls, partisan polls, academic polls... Nate Silver has added them up in the New York Times and tallied a 9-point overall lead for Romney over Newt Gingrich in Tuesday's primary. Polls can be wrong, Silver admits, but it looks like Newt has missed his chance in Florida.

Chance #1: Thursday night's debate, where Gingrich stumbled in the face of Romney's relentless attacks. Chance #2: Early voting, which accounts for one-third of Florida voters and clearly went Romney's way. Now Newt needs a 5%-to-10% victory on Election Day to overcome Mitt's early voting lead—not easy after trailing by 7% to 11% all week. Maybe Herman Cain's endorsement will help. But Silver gives Gingrich about a 12% chance of pulling of a Florida miracle. (Read more Mitt Romney 2012 stories.)

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