Joe Biden's rising fortunes have upended the Democratic race, but the latest analysis from FiveThirtyEight.com might still be surprising to casual political observers. It gives Biden an 88% chance of winning a majority of pledged delegates and Bernie Sanders just 2%. The accompanying analysis by Nate Silver offers plenty of caveats, including that the forecast model may be wrong in its "educated guesses" about where supporters of Elizabeth Warren and Michael Bloomberg will go. "With that said, even if there’s some uncertainty here—perhaps a bit more of it than the model lets on—things don’t look good for Sanders," writes Silver.
The Vermont senator must rebound quickly "or it will be too late," writes Silver, and the upcoming states, particularly Michigan, are not promising for him. "It’s not impossible," he adds. "But the chances are low." One factor in Sanders' favor is that recent "volatility" in the polls will probably continue, and since Sanders is now the underdog, that could work in his favor. "Even a win in Michigan would just be the first step in a long journey back to front-runner status for Sanders—but every comeback has to start somewhere," writes Silver. (Read his full analysis here.)