This Country Will Overtake Japan in Life Expectancy

Spain predicted to sit atop the rankings by 2040
By Evann Gastaldo,  Newser Staff
Posted Oct 18, 2018 2:47 PM CDT
Bad News for US in New Study of Life Expectancy
People cool of with water from a fountain during a hot summer day, in the basque city of Vitoria, northern Spain, Saturday, Aug. 4, 2018.   (AP Photo / Alvaro Barrientos)

(Newser) – A new study looking at how life expectancy around the world will have changed by 2040 holds bad news for the US: Of all the high-income countries, the US will take the biggest drop, falling from 43rd place in 2016 to 64th place; the average US life expectancy in 2040 is expected to be 79.8 years. The average global rise in life expectancy from 2016 to 2040 will be 4.4 years, compared to just 1.1 years in the US. Of course, "The future of the world's health is not pre-ordained, and there is a wide range of plausible trajectories," the lead author of the study tells CNN. Researchers used data from the 2016 Global Burden of Diseases project to make their predictions, analyzing how diseases and risk factors (tobacco use, BMI, and others) will impact life expectancy. The top 10 by 2040:

  1. Spain (85.8 years) is expected to edge out Japan from its long-held top spot
  2. Japan (85.7 years)
  3. Singapore (85.4 years)
  4. Switzerland (85.2 years)
  5. Portugal (84.5 years) saw the biggest increase of any country in the top 20, rising from 23rd place to fifth
  6. Italy (84.5 years) rose from seventh place to sixth
  7. Israel (84.4 years)
  8. France (84.3 years)
  9. Luxembourg (84.1 years)
  10. Australia (84.1 years)
(These five habits have a "huge effect" on longevity.)

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