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Senate Forecast Tweaks Favor Democrats

Assessments of 3 contests edge away from Republicans
By Bob Cronin,  Newser Staff
Posted Oct 13, 2020 4:09 PM CDT

(Newser) – The reelection fortunes of three Republican senators declined a bit Tuesday, as the Cook Political Report adjusted its assessments. The changes echoed one the nonpartisan organization made last week, the Hill reports, when it shifted the South Carolina race from "lean Republican" to "toss-up." Sen. Lindsey Graham, the Republican, is running there against Democrat Jaime Harrison. Here are the changes Cook made Tuesday:

  • Georgia goes from "lean Republican" to "toss-up." Republican Sen. Kelly Loeffler is competing with Republican Rep. Doug Collins and Democrats Raphael Warnock and Matt Lieberman. Polls show Warnock ahead. A runoff will be held Jan. 2 if none of the candidates top 50% of the vote.

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  • Alaska shifts from "likely Republican" to "lean Republican." The GOP incumbent, Dan Sullivan, has a 4-point lead in the most recent poll over Al Gross, an independent supported by Alaska's Democratic Party. But there hasn't been much polling in the race.
  • Texas moves from "likely Republican" to "lean Republican." The RealClearPolitics average has Republican Sen. John Cornyn with a 7.6-point lead. He's up against MJ Hegar, an Air Force veteran.
There was more encouragement for Democrats on Tuesday, per Fox News. A Monmouth University poll showed Cal Cunningham with a 4-point lead in the North Carolina Senate race over Republican Sen. Thom Tillis despite a sexting scandal involving Cunningham. The two were in a virtual tie last month. (Read more Election 2020 stories.)

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