The Facts Surrounding the Gaza Hospital Blast Are a Mess

Two days after an explosion rocked a hospital in Gaza, the finger-pointing continues over who's responsible. Israel blames an errant rocket from the Islamic Jihad. But the latter group and Hamas blame an Israeli airstrike. President Biden is siding with Israel on the matter. For those making definitive claims on either side, an analysis at CNN offers a note of caution: "Until independent investigators are able to assess the incident in detail, it is unlikely that the world will know with certainty what led to the blast." Coverage:

• Rocket barrage: Islamic Jihad did indeed announce that it launched a barrage of rockets at Israel around the time of Tuesday's explosion at Al Ahli Hospital. But a spokesperson tells the New York Times that such announcements don't always sync with the actual launches. He also acknowledged errant rockets meant for Israel had previously killed Palestinians. "We have made mistakes, I am not going to deny it," he said. "However, not mistakes of this size." The spokesperson suggested the group's weaponry is too "primitive" to have caused such damage.

• Evidence: Israeli military officials insist that photos from the explosion show that the damage is not consistent with Israeli ordnance, and analysts quoted in various stories seem to agree. "It's very clear to me that this is not an airstrike," Marc Garlasco, a former targeting officer for the US military who now works for the nonprofit group PAX, tells NPR. He says he isn't seeing evidence of a large crater or signs of a "shock wave" that would follow, such as damage to surrounding structures. Israel also says it captured a Hamas member in a wiretapped phone call saying the explosion was caused by an Islamic Jihad rocket fired at Israel from a cemetery. The recording has not been verified.
• Impact crater: The investigative site Bellingcat thinks it has identified the impact crater, which it notes doesn't appear to be consistent with the standard bombs used by Israel in its airstrikes. Three of four military or munitions experts consulted by NBC News don't think Israel is responsible. But its analysis also notes that because outside experts can't actually get to the site, verification is "particularly difficult." Israeli officials say radar data and video show that rockets were fired at Israel in the moments before the explosion.
• Skeptics: Countries including Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Egypt, the United Arab Emirates, and Iraq have blamed Israel, and protests are widespread throughout the Arab world. The United Nations has called for a thorough investigation of what happened.

(More Israel-Hamas war stories.)