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2022 a Great Year for Those Who Dislike Political Polls

FiveThirtyEight's forecasters find the lack of reliable information 'disconcerting'

(Newser) - There’s been much ado lately about the dire state of polling —including a general lack of confidence among the public, pundits, and pollsters themselves that polls can be trusted at all. For those who simply detest polls and wish they would all go away, the current state of...

Pollster Apologizes to New Jersey: 'I Blew It'

Monmouth's Patrick Murray acknowledges late poll was way off in governor's race

(Newser) - Less than a week before Election Day, Monmouth University put out a poll showing that New Jersey Gov. Phil Murphy had a comfortable lead of 11 points over GOP challenger Jack Ciattarelli. The race turned out to be much, much closer—the AP has indeed called it for Murphy , but...

Latest Polls Are Not Good News for Biden

His approval rating has hit its lowest point since he took office

(Newser) - Two new polls show President Biden's approval rating declining as COVID surges and bad news related to Afghanistan abounds:
  • NBC News: The poll found Biden's approval rating hit 49%, the first time it has dipped below 50%, and his disapproval rating hit 48%. In April, NBC's polling

Democratic Pollsters: We Got It Wrong Again

5 firms admit 'major errors' in predicting 2020 outcome, have no definitive solution

(Newser) - Five of the Democratic Party's six biggest polling firms are admitting "major errors" in their 2020 polling data, with "no consensus on a solution." A Tuesday letter signed by ALG Research, Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group, GBAO Strategies, Global Strategy Group, and Normington Petts describes a months-long effort...

Why the Polls May Have Got It Wrong
It's Another 'Disaster
for the Polling Industry'

It's Another 'Disaster for the Polling Industry'

Pundits point to social desirability bias

(Newser) - With six states still to be called , much about the 2020 election is up in the air. What is clear is that President Trump did far better than most polls suggested he would, as also was the case in 2016. Surveys gave the impression of "an easy win for...

The Election Polls Are Wrong
The Election Polls Are Wrong

The Election Polls Are Wrong

Two opinion writers predict that Trump will 'win big'

(Newser) - Polls show Joe Biden ahead nationally and in key states, but do we believe it? Jonathan Jakubowski and Christos Makridis are among those saying no: "We predict that President Trump is going to win the 2020 presidential election—and win big," they write at the Hill . They argue...

Biden Keeps Double-Digit Lead as Democratic 'Anxiety' Persists

President trims disadvantage from 14 to 11 points in NBC poll

(Newser) - President Trump doesn't appear to be closing the gap with Joe Biden in the final weeks of the election in the same way he did against Hillary Clinton in 2016. A new NBC News / Wall Street Journal poll still has Biden up by double digits. Among registered voters,...

Just Under the Wire, a 6th Debate Contender

Tom Steyer will join Biden, Buttigieg, Klobuchar, Sanders, and Warren on Tuesday

(Newser) - And then there were six. On Thursday morning, just Joe Biden, Pete Buttigieg, Amy Klobuchar, Bernie Sanders, and Elizabeth Warren had met polling and fundraising requirements to participate in Tuesday's Democratic debate in Iowa. By Thursday evening, there was a new entry : businessman Tom Steyer, who Politico notes was...

Polling Shifts on Impeachment
Mood Shifts on Impeachment

Mood Shifts on Impeachment

Now a majority favors the House probe, CBS News poll finds

(Newser) - Looks like Americans are shifting on impeachment—at least according to a new poll of 2,059 US residents conducted on Thursday and Friday, CBS News reports. Much in the YouGov poll breaks down predictably between Democrats and Republicans, but a slim majority now approve the impeachment inquiry into President...

Polls Get Even Better for Warren
Polls Get Even
Better for

Polls Get Even Better for Warren

Joe Biden bears the brunt

(Newser) - If Joe Biden was concerned to see Elizabeth Warren pull ahead in a recent poll of Iowa , he might now be shaking in his boots. For the first time, the Massachusetts senator leads the former vice president in Quinnipiac University's nationwide poll, out Wednesday, per Politico . Some 27% of...

Surveys Are Encouraging for Trump and Biden

Sanders is a distant second in Democratic field, and president's approval rating improves

(Newser) - President Trump, who has said he could well be facing Joe Biden in the 2020 presidential election, has more reason to think that now. A new poll shows Biden with a major lead on the Democratic side. Trump will be buoyed, as well, by poll results that show a rise...

He Took a 'Very Unusual' Job at Facebook, Decided to Quit

What it's like to track the perception of Mark Zuckerberg full-time

(Newser) - Tavis McGinn spent six months doing a "very unusual" job at Facebook then decided he just didn't want to do it anymore. "I didn't feel proud to tell people I worked at Facebook," he tells the Verge . "I didn't feel I was helping...

Why So Many Pollsters Were So Completely Wrong
Why So Many
Pollsters Were So
Completely Wrong

Why So Many Pollsters Were So Completely Wrong

Some theories as to where it went off the rails

(Newser) - The prevailing question the morning after Donald Trump's stunning victory is: How did so many get it so wrong? An "absolutely unreal" "Chance of Winning Presidency" graphic on the New York Times' forecasting page Tuesday evening showed Trump ascending from a 20% chance of winning the White...

Get Ready for an 'Unprecedented Election Day Experiment'
Get Ready for
an 'Unprecedented
Election Day Experiment'
election 2016

Get Ready for an 'Unprecedented Election Day Experiment'

Exit poll results to be released in real time for 7 battleground states

(Newser) - In the old days (meaning before this election), results from exit polls weren't released by the news groups until all polls had closed. But thanks to a joint initiative via Slate, Vice News, and a company called Votecastr , how exit polls are handled this time around will be a...

Gary Johnson Continues Slide in Polls

Libertarian candidate's numbers started plunging after he didn't make debates

(Newser) - Gary Johnson has been making a valiant go of it, but the Libertarian Party's candidate for president is starting to see his numbers slip away at the polls—or, as the Boston Globe puts it, "Gary Johnson is no longer a thing." Politico reports that about half...

Trump Catches Clinton in National Polls: What It Means

The key thing to keep in mind: It's only May

(Newser) - Not too long ago, Hillary Clinton held double-digit leads over Donald Trump in a hypothetical one-on-one matchup. Trump, however, has now actually edged ahead of her in an average of national polls compiled at RealClearPolitics . The development has prompted all kinds of analysis. Some highlights:
  • "Mr. Trump has made

Trump May Be More Popular Than You Think

Some supporters might be lying to pollsters, study finds

(Newser) - Some Donald Trump supporters are too ashamed to admit it, according to a new study that suggests that his poll numbers may be even higher than GOP strategists think. Researchers at the Morning Consult polling firm say that when they polled almost 2,500 Republican and Republican-leaning voters using a...

Clinton and Trump's Hot New Rival: Deez Nuts

Independent 'candidate' is 15-year-old from Iowa doing surprisingly well in polls

(Newser) - Before this week, Deez Nuts was nothing more than an Internet meme . Now Deez Nuts has turned into a different kind of sensation : a top-polling independent presidential candidate against Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton. In a Public Policy Polling survey in North Carolina released yesterday, 40% of voters would pull...

Who Needs Polls? We Have Twitter
 Who Needs Polls? 
 We Have Twitter 

Who Needs Polls? We Have Twitter

Fabio Rojas reveals a new study showing social media predicts outcomes

(Newser) - Bad news, professional pollsters: Twitter is about to put you out of work. Or at least, that's what sociologist Fabio Rojas is predicting, based on a study he helped conduct. The study found that "Twitter discussions are an unusually good predictor of US House elections," he writes...

Mayor Weiner? He Spends $100K on Pollster

Money suggests ex-congressman is getting back into politics

(Newser) - Anthony Weiner isn't saying anything publicly, but his wallet suggests he's serious about getting back into politics soon. The former congressman spent more than $100,000 on consulting and polling this month, reports the New York Post , setting off all kinds of renewed speculation that he plans to...

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