Novo Nordisk's Charmed Run May Be Ending

Novo Nordisk is bracing for its first annual sales slide since before Ozempic became a household name. Shares have fallen 19% this week after the Danish drugmaker forecast a 5% to 13% revenue drop for 2026, citing intensifying weight-loss drug competition and price cuts tied to a White House deal. Rival Eli Lilly—maker of Mounjaro and Zepbound—is anticipating the opposite: 2026 sales up 25%, with revenue between $80 billion and $83 billion. That's well ahead of the $77.62 billion expected by analysts, reports CNBC. Its shares are trading up nearly 9% Wednesday. More:

• Should Novo Nordisk suffer a down year, the New York Times notes it would represent the first drop in annual sales since 2017; Ozempic hit the market one year later. The company's 2025 revenue was about $49 billion, up 10% year-over-year, though that's the slowest growth Novo Nordisk has seen since 2020.
• Novo Nordisk is banking on its new daily Wegovy pill to help turn things around. Launched in January with a $149 starter dose under the White House agreement, it has already been tried by 170,000 people and is selling 15 times faster than the original injectable in its first month, CEO Mike Doustdar said. Eli Lilly's GLP-1 pill is expected in Q2 of this year.
• CNBC gives the obesity/diabetes drug market-share breakdown: Eli Lilly's slice was 60.5% in Q4 2025, to Novo's 39.1%.
• Quartz's take: "Put together, the earnings crystallize a narrative that's been building for years. Novo may have invented the modern weight loss drug market, but its early-mover advantage has evaporated. Lilly now looks like the company best positioned to scale the market profitably."