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A Bad Hurricane Season Just Got Worse

Forecasters change predictions for storm activity ahead
By Newser Editors and Wire Services
Posted Aug 6, 2020 4:39 PM CDT

(Newser) – Already smashing records, this year's hyperactive Atlantic hurricane season is about to get even nastier, forecasters predict. In the coming months, the AP reports, they expect to run out of traditional hurricane names and see about twice as much storm activity as a normal year. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration on Thursday upped its seasonal forecast, now predicting a far-above-average 19 to 25 named storms—seven to 11 of them to become hurricanes, and three to six of those to become major hurricanes with winds of at least 111mph. That's a few more storms than the agency's May forecast. The agency increased the chance of an above-average hurricane season from 60% to 85%. "It looks like this season could be one of the more active in the historical record," but it's unlikely to be beat 2005's 28 named storms because the oceans were warmer and other conditions were more conducive to storm formation 15 years ago, said NOAA lead forecaster Gerry Bell.

This year's forecast of up to 25 is the most NOAA has ever predicted, beating the 21 projected for 2005, Bell said. Colorado State University, which pioneered hurricane season forecasts decades ago, on Wednesday amped its forecast to 24 named storms, 12 hurricanes, and five major hurricanes—all higher than its June forecast. An average year, based on 1981 to 2010 data, is 12 named storms, six hurricanes, and three major hurricanes. Colorado State forecaster Phil Klotzbach said all the factors that cause hurricane seasons to be busy are dialed up, including increased storminess in Africa that seeds the biggest hurricanes, warmer water that fuels storms, and reduced high-level winds that kill storms. University of Miami researcher Brian McNoldy said it's likely that there will be more storms than names. There are 21 names assigned to a hurricane season. If there are more than 21 storms, meteorologists turn after Wilfred to the Greek alphabet—Alpha, Beta, Gamma, and so on.

(Read more hurricane season stories.)

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