Think the 2020 election will go smoothly? Over 500,000 mail-in ballots were rejected in the primaries. President Trump is urging absentee voters to vote twice. The USPS drama got Congress involved. Now, with such omens lurking, CNN reports on "realistic scenarios" in which Trump or Joe Biden could win the Electoral College by a hair. The last 1-vote election was 1876—an incredibly contentious event that led to the end of Reconstruction—but 2-vote scenarios or even a 269-269 tie aren't hard to imagine in 2020:
- Trump holds his 2016 states, except Pennsylvania and Michigan. He wins, 270-268.
- Biden takes the Clinton states plus Wisconsin, Michigan, Arizona, and Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District. He wins, 270-268.
- Trump keeps his 2016 states, except Arizona and Florida, and wins New Hampshire. He wins, 270-268.
- Biden holds the Clinton states along with Pennsylvania, Michigan, Arizona, and Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District. Again, it's 270-268.
- A 269-269 tie? I could happen in many ways, like the above scenarios with the other candidate winning Nebraska's 2nd District. In that case, the House chooses the president.
For deeper dives into swing state madness, check out the New York Times
(it's interactive—you can drag swing states into each candidate's victory circle) or Five Thirty-Eight
's look at how swing states have trended since 2000. (Or see Michael Moore's warning to Democrats