Labor Day has come and gone, which means that it's time to start getting serious about watching the presidential race, says Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight. "It's no longer 'too soon' to look at polls, even (if) you're the type of person who's inclined to be conservative in when you start looking at polls," he tweeted Tuesday. As of this week, his site has Joe Biden up 7.5 points in national polling. It also gives Biden a 72% chance of winning and President Trump a 28% chance. The upshot: Biden is in a good position, but you'd be crazy to write off Trump. Backing that up is a new analysis by the respected Cook Political Report that delivers good news to Trump on two battleground states: It has Nevada and Florida both creeping to the right.
This is incremental stuff: The site has changed its rating on Florida from "Lean Democrat" to "Toss Up," and on Nevada from "Likely Democrat" to "Lean Democrat," writes Amy Walter, who runs through the particulars in each state. On Florida, for instance, Biden is "underperforming with Latino voters," while Trump's standing in state polls has been ticking up the last few months. Nevada, meanwhile, has been slammed particularly hard by the pandemic from an economic perspective, with many residents there more worried about a keeping a roof over their heads than anything else. (Meanwhile, a COVID vaccine has become a flashpoint in the race.)