In New Polls, 'a Really Bad Number for Trump'

Biden appears to widen lead in crucial Pennsylvania, as well as nationally
By John Johnson,  Newser Staff
Posted Oct 6, 2020 12:52 PM CDT
What the Latest Polls Say About November
   (Getty/Joaquin Corbalan)

A flurry of new polls are out about the presidential race, and they don't bode well for President Trump. They come with the usual caveat that Trump trailed Hillary Clinton at this point in 2016. The new results show Joe Biden widening his lead nationally and at least maintaining his edge in swing states. Coverage:

  • Nationally: A new CNN/SSRS poll has Biden up among likely voters nationwide by 16 points, his biggest margin yet. The tally is 57% to 41% in the survey conducted Oct. 1-4. For the record, University of Virginia political forecaster Larry Sabato is a little skeptical. "Do I really believe Biden is up 57% to Trump’s 41%?" he tweets. "No. But as of early October, Trump needs to gain substantial ground—yet he’s going in the wrong direction."
  • Nationally, II: A poll by the Wall Street Journal and NBC News has Biden up nationally by 14 points among registered voters, 53% to 39%. That's up substantially from an 8-point lead in the same poll last month. This one was done before Trump tested positive for COVID but after the first debate, suggesting the latter had an effect on voters.

  • Swing states: The national numbers are one thing, but the race is expected to come down to a handful of swing states, and a poll by CNBC/Change Research shows that Biden has slightly increased his edge collectively in the states of Arizona, Florida, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. The survey has Biden up 50-45, up from 49-45 two weeks ago. Biden leads in all those states: Arizona (51-45), Florida (50-46), Michigan (51-43), North Carolina (49-47), Pennsylvania (50-46), and Wisconsin (51-44).
  • Pennsylvania: This state is seen as particularly crucial because Trump's path to victory becomes exceedingly difficult if he loses here. A new Monmouth University poll has Biden up 12 points among registered voters and 8 to 11 points among likely voters. Some context from Nate Silver of This is an "awfully poor result" for Trump, he writes. "The one saving grace for Trump is that Monmouth uses small-ish sample sizes (500 here, 400 in their previous polls) so they can bounce around a lot. They had Biden up 7-10 points in July but only 1-3 in August. Still, a really bad number for Trump here."
  • Michigan: A separate post-debate poll in Michigan finds that Biden has a lead of 48 to 39, his biggest lead yet in the state, reports WDIV. It finds in particular that white voters over age 65 are increasingly shifting to Biden.
(More Election 2020 stories.)

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