Trump Needs to Conquer Toss-Up States to Win

Even then, he'll have some work to do, according to latest forecasts
By Newser Editors,  Newser Staff
Posted Oct 30, 2020 12:02 PM CDT

(Newser) – It's the last weekend to go before the election, and various outlets are providing a late look at where the race stands. The big picture will sound familiar: Joe Biden is the consensus favorite, but President Trump still has a path to victory. At FiveThirtyEight.com, the site puts Biden's chances of victory at 89% and Trump's at 11%. Coverage:

  • One view: In the final map from NPR, Biden has a clear advantage in the race to 270 electoral votes. In states that lean toward or are likely to go to a certain candidate, Biden is up 279-125. "Trump's straightest remaining path to victory calls for him to capture nearly all the tossup states—not impossible, since most have long histories of voting GOP—and then capture PA," tweets Steve Inskeep. On the flip side, he notes that some traditional red states have become toss-ups (notably Texas) or even blue, meaning Biden has a chance of going higher than 279. NPR's toss-up states: Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, Iowa, Ohio, Arizona, and Texas. Also a toss-up is Maine's 2nd Congressional District; the state isn't winner-take-all.

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