With one day of campaigning to go, the polls tell a familiar story. Joe Biden is the frontrunner over President Trump in national surveys. He also leads in most of the swing states, though by smaller margins. But at FiveThirtyEight.com, an analysis by Nate Silver has a headline with another familiar theme: "I'm Here To Remind You That Trump Can Still Win." The site has Trump's chances of victory at about 10%. Silver runs through the ways Trump can win re-election, and Pennsylvania is a big one. Yes, Biden leads the polls by about 5 points there, but that's not a very comfortable margin. And if Biden loses Pennsylvania, his own path to victory gets much trickier. In fact, on Sunday, Silver told ABC's This Week that Biden becomes the "underdog" if he doesn't win his native state, per Fox News. Related:
- A final poll: The last NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll of the contest has Biden up 52-42 among registered voters. "This is the 11th survey we’ve done in 2020, and so little has changed,” said Democratic pollster Peter Hart.
- More on Pennsylvania: A new Monmouth University poll actually has Biden up 7 points in the state, at least in a high-turnout model. The lead shrinks to 5 points if turnout is low or if lots of mail ballots are rejected.