Major Poll on 2024 Race: Biden 43, Trump 43

The New York Times is out with its first poll about the 2024 race, and the phrase "dead heat" is in play. As in, the poll has President Biden and former President Trump tied at 43% in a hypothetical rematch. Yes, both men have to win their party primaries first, but that is looking more and more like a lock. A Times poll released Monday, also done in conjunction with Sienna College, has Trump absolutely crushing his opponents despite two indictments and more legal trouble looming: He's up 54 to17 over Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, with the other candidates in single digits.

• The undecided: A separate analysis in the New York Times' morning newsletter takes a look at the pivotal 14% who have yet to back either Biden or Trump. This camp isn't thrilled with either candidate, but they seem less thrilled with Trump. Only 15% have a somewhat or very favorable opinion of him, compared to 27% for Biden. In part because of this, "Biden enters a potential rematch with Trump as a modest favorite," writes David Leonhardt. But anyone "who assumes that the 2024 outcome is sure to repeat the 2020 outcome—even in a rematch campaign—is making a mistake."
• On Biden: The Tuesday poll finds Biden on "firmer footing" among Democrats than a year ago, with more accepting the idea he will be the nominee. However, his overall approval rating among all voters remains a weak 39%.

(More Election 2024 stories.)