Traders Bet On McCain vs. Obama

Frontrunners look like primary winners in prediction markets
By Sam Gale Rosen,  Newser Staff
Posted Mar 4, 2008 10:00 AM CST
Democratic presidential hopeful Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill., addresses a rally Wednesday, Feb. 27, 2008, in Columbus, Ohio. (AP Photo/Rick Bowmer)   (Associated Press)
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(Newser) – Traders in online prediction markets are betting on Barack Obama and John McCain as the winners in their respective primaries today. The Intrade and Iowa Electronic futures markets let traders wager real money on outcomes political and otherwise; both markets give Obama's chances for winning the nomination as almost 80%, reports CNNMoney.

The markets are far from infallible; Intrade predicted that Obama would win both New Hampshire and California. And in the past few days, the direction of the markets has changed. "The overall trend in the nomination market has been one of very significant Obama strength, but in the last few days, there has been a tiny bounce back for Clinton," says Intrade's CEO. (Read more Intrade stories.)