Sure, Joe Biden has been campaigning mostly from home—but that doesn't mean he's behind. A new Reuters/Ipsos poll has him ahead by 13 points as Americans fume over President Trump's handling of the pandemic and police brutality protests. Conducted June 10 to 16, the poll found 48% of registered voters liked Biden and 35% went for Trump. Meanwhile, 57% disapproved of Trump's performance and only 38% approved. Perhaps more alarmingly for Trump, his support base appears to be dwindling, with Republican approval fading by 13 points from March to June.
But what about the all-important swing states? The Cook Political Report is predicting that 2020's swing states will be Arizona, Florida, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, while NPR adds Ohio, Nevada, and New Hampshire. While they remain toss-ups, NPR's polls have Biden ahead by at least a slim margin in most of its listed swing states. But toss-up ratings "should not be taken literally—at least not at this stage," says FiveThirtyEight, adding that it's "challenging to forecast the national political environment so far in advance." (Take a deeper look at polling in two states.)