The most recent polls in the Virginia governor's race show Republican Glenn Youngkin closing ground on Democrat Terry McAuliffe—if not already ahead—as the campaigns reach final days. A Fox News poll taken early last week is by far the most encouraging for Youngkin, showing him up 53%-45% with likely voters. Two weeks earlier, the poll had McAuliffe leading, 51%-46%. A Washington Post-Schar School poll sees a far different race, in which McAuliffe is up by a point, 49%-48%, per the Post. The month before, the same poll had found McAuliffe at an even 50%, with a 3-point lead.
An Echelon Insights poll agrees with Fox's finding that Youngkin leads, though its gap was 3 points, per Yahoo News. In a CNN analysis, Harry Enten expresses skepticism about the Fox poll, whose results aren't close to any other poll's, and which has a larger margin of error. The Post survey, conducted Oct. 20-26, is more reflective of overall poll findings. Either could be on the money, Enten writes, but the most plausible finding is that the election Tuesday is too close to call. The HotAir blog gives Fox credit for publishing a poll with the appearance of coming out of left field. It's possible that poll captured a last-minute break of independents toward Youngkin.
Among the narrower findings, the polls agree that education issues have become a priority for voters, often supplanting the COVID-19 pandemic. Fox says that's led to an increase in enthusiasm among Republicans, with 79% of Youngkin's supporters extremely interested in the election, compared to 69% of McAuliffe backers. Another worrisome sign for McAuliffe is Youngkin's 18-point lead among likely voters who identify as independents, a 10-point jump in the past month.
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"Youngkin has put together an effective coalition that includes Trump Republicans and independent swing voters," said Mark Rozell of George Mason University. That may mean that Youngkin's effort to link Younkin to former President Donald Trump hasn't been effective. One independent retiree, who lives in a rural area near West Virginia, said Trump issues, including the false election claim that the candidate has danced around, don't bother her about Youngkin. "He is being supported by the Republican Party, so he’s got to spout some of that stuff that the Republican Party feeds him," Jane Sellers said. "And I understand that." (More Virginia stories.)
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