10th of Every Month Is Now a Huge Political Day

The first Friday of each month used to be the big day in terms of financial data, because that's when the new unemployment figures are released. As Axios reports, that has changed this year. The new big day: the 10th of every month, when the consumer price index comes out as a measure of inflation. Coverage:

• A shift: Jason Furman, who served as chair of the Council of Economic Advisers under President Obama, sums it up: "When I was at CEA, we would have an all-out mobilization around jobs day but barely noticed when the CPI came out. Now, it is almost the reverse."
• The worries: A new survey by the Wall Street Journal illustrates why the CPI is so important. More than half of voters—56%—say inflation is causing either major or minor financial strain in their lives. Most of these respondents cited gas and grocery prices, while a quarter cited housing and utility bills. The sentiment helps explain why most people think the economy is headed in the wrong direction, even though unemployment is improving.

• Bracing: When last month's report came out, it said inflation was rising at an annual rate of 6.2%, the highest in 30 years. The report that will drop at 8:30am ET on Wednesday might be worse. Matthew Weller at Investing.com writes that economists expect a new figure of 6.8%, the worst in 40 years. Investors will be paying particularly close attention because the new figure could affect the Fed's actions at its Dec. 14-15 meeting.
• The peak? Moody's Analytics economist Mark Zandi thinks the number Wednesday might be even be worse, though he adds a silver lining. "November's consumer price inflation report ... will be ugly," he tweets. "CPI inflation of 7% is possible. But this is the last really bad inflation number. Inflation a year from now will be closer to 3%." That, he notes, is close to the Fed's ideal target.
• The politics: Republican are calling this "Bidenflation," notes Politico. But the analysis by Victoria Guida suggests the strategy might not be working too well by the time people go to the polls in 2022. "Prices of everything from oil and natural gas to wheat and corn have already started falling from their peaks earlier this year," writes Guida. "That trend is likely to continue in 2022, lowering gas prices and stabilizing food costs for consumers, a potential boon for President Joe Biden's party as it seeks to maintain control of Congress."

(More inflation stories.)