Chance of Double-Dip Recession in 2011 Falls to 15%

The Bush tax cut deal has some economists walking on sunshine. Experts are getting more upbeat in their forecasts for next year, predicting accelerating growth, finds the Wall Street Journal in its latest forecasting survey. The 55 experts who weighed in expect GDP to grow in “nearly every period," and foresee GDP growth of 3% in 2011 as a whole.

The experts say the odds of a double-dip recession are now 15%, the lowest likelihood predicted this year, and down from 22% in September. And most of them believe it’s more likely the economy will beat expectations than underperform their forecasts. They’re encouraged by recent figures on “trade, retail sales, consumer sentiment and manufacturing,” as well as the compromise on Bush tax cuts, which also includes an unforeseen temporary payroll tax cut.
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