X

Always-Right Formula Says Obama Wins 2nd Term

And a look at the 13 'keys' to success
By Kevin Spak,  Newser Staff
Suggested by Larry-Crehore
Posted Aug 31, 2011 2:05 PM CDT

(Newser) – Looks like President Obama can stop worrying about the 2012 election—it’s a done deal, according to American University professor Allan Lichtman. “Even if I am being conservative I don’t see how Obama can lose,” he tells US News. Lichtman has a simple system for determining who will win the presidency, and it’s been right every time since he invented it in 1981, a 7-0 record that “no other system even comes close to,” he boasts.

story continues below

The system evaluates the incumbent party on 13 “keys” to reelection; if it hits at least six, it’s predicted to win. Obama scored as follows (follow the source link for details):

  • The party picks up seats in the midterm. Obama loses.
  • No primary challenger. Obama wins.
  • Candidate is the incumbent. Obama wins.
  • There’s no third-party candidate. Obama wins.
  • We’re not in a recession on Election Day. The jury’s out on this one.
  • The economy has been strong this term. Obama loses.
  • Policies have changed since the previous administration. Obama wins.
  • There is no major social unrest. Obama wins.
  • The candidate hasn’t been embroiled in scandal. Obama wins.
  • There have been no major foreign/military failures. Obama wins.
  • There have been major foreign/military successes. Obama wins.
  • The incumbent is charismatic. Obama loses.
  • The challenger is charismatic. Obama wins.
(Read more Barack Obama stories.)

We use cookies. By Clicking "OK" or any content on this site, you agree to allow cookies to be placed. Read more in our privacy policy.
Get the news faster.
Tap to install our app.
X