If New York investigators are right, Richard Matt and David Sweat are probably sleeping right now—but they'll wake soon and continue picking their way through the woods and back roads toward Canada when darkness falls. At an update today on the hunt for the prison escapees, authorities say they're now pretty sure the men are trying to make the border, reports NBC News. "Based on what we know at this point, we have a high degree of confidence in our conclusion," says Maj. Charles Guess of the state police. Guess didn't provide specifics, but he said investigators found "significant" items from the men in a cabin and in a field in the town of Malone yesterday and this morning, reports AP. They've shifted their search accordingly in a bid to head the men off.
Matt and Sweat have eluded capture for three weeks now, which is impressive, but it doesn't protect them from this damning stat cited by the Atlantic: More than 92% of escapees from medium- and high-security prisons are caught within a year. Their odds improve somewhat if they make it past a month, however. The search update comes after a second prison worker was charged in the escape. (He once likened the inmates at his prison in Dannemora to caged "puppies.")