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National Poll Shows Trump in the Lead

But barely
By Arden Dier,  Newser Staff
Posted Nov 1, 2016 11:13 AM CDT

(Newser) – The presidential race looks closer than some would've thought possible less than a month ago. A week from Election Day, an ABC News/Washington Post poll shows Donald Trump leading Hillary Clinton nationally among likely voters, but only by 0.7% with a 3-point margin of error. Still, it's Trump's first lead in such a poll since May, reports CNN. Some 38% of 1,128 likely voters polled from Oct. 27-30 identified as Democrat, compared to 28% as Republican and 29% as independent. But the gap lessens to 48% Democrats and 43% Republicans when considering independents who lean one way or the other. When rounded, the figures show Trump with 46% support compared to Clinton at 45%. Gary Johnson is at 3% and Jill Stein at 2%.

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Voters appear to favor Trump 48% over Clinton's 41% in swing states Arizona, Florida, North Carolina, Ohio, and Utah, though that's with a 5.5-point margin of error. Trump also leads among voters who say they're enthusiastic about voting, 53% to Clinton's 45%. Strong enthusiasm for Clinton actually fell during the tracking period beginning Oct. 20—a possible consequence of renewed interest in her emails. Clinton supporters shouldn't freak out, though: Early voters favor Clinton, and a survey of the five most recent national phone polls (including the ABC/Post poll) shows her ahead of Trump 46% to 42%. Meanwhile, ABC notes Mitt Romney led Barack Obama by a point a week before Election Day in 2012. John Kerry likewise led George W. Bush in 2004. (Read more Election 2016 stories.)

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