Poll Lends Weight to 'Foregone Conclusion' on Liz Cheney

Wyo. congresswoman trails Trump pick Harriet Hageman by 22 points in reelection bid
By Jenn Gidman,  Newser Staff
Posted Jul 16, 2022 10:45 AM CDT
Poll Lends Weight to 'Foregone Conclusion' on Liz Cheney
Rep. Liz Cheney, R-Wyo., listens as the House select committee investigating the Jan. 6 attack on the US Capitol holds a hearing at the Capitol in Washington on Tuesday.   (AP Photo/J. Scott Applewhite)

The first independent, public in-state poll has been released in Wyoming on Liz Cheney's reelection bid to the US House of Representatives, and it's not great news for Cheney. A survey of 1,100 registered Wyoming voters, conducted from July 7 to July 11 for the Casper Star-Tribune by Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy, finds that the congresswoman is coming in 22 points behind her rival, natural resources attorney and Trump endorsee Harriet Hageman: 30% to Hageman's 52%. The news comes a month ahead of the Aug. 16 primary in Wyoming, with the Cheney-Hageman race one that's drawn particular interest.

In what Insider deems a "stunning split," Cheney has fallen out of favor among many GOP circles for her continued criticism of former President Donald Trump, including for the fact that she's serving as the vice chair of the House panel investigating the Jan. 6 attack on the US Capitol. Although Cheney has easily won her primaries in the past, her condemnations of Trump have made things much harder for her this time around in conservative-leaning Wyoming. The Hill notes that Cheney has even been encouraging Democrats to switch parties and vote for her, including with mailers offering them info on how to participate in the GOP primary. "I just can't believe it," one longtime Democratic voter who intends to do just that tells the Star Tribune. "I've never registered Republican in my life."

The paper notes that Cheney has a 53% job approval rating with the Dems who plan to show up for the Republican primary, though 69% of them say they're going to vote for her. The poll notes, however, that due to the relatively small number of Democrats in the state, it likely won't tip the scales in Cheney's favor anyway. Only 29% of independents who plan to vote Republican give her a thumbs-up on her job performance. "The big story is Liz Cheney is going to get beat," Brad Coker, Mason-Dixon's managing director, tells the paper. "That's a foregone conclusion." (Read more Liz Cheney stories.)

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