President Trump has said the election winner should be announced on election night—but few Americans are expecting that to happen, according to a Politico/Morning Consult poll. The poll found that only 17% of Americans expect to know the winner Tuesday night, while 18% expect to know the following day, 30% expect to know within a week, and 3% believe it will be a month before the winner is determined. The poll found only minor variations between different groups: The people most optimistic about getting a result Tuesday night are Republican men—23% of them believe a winner will be confirmed then.
The poll also found high levels of distrust of the electoral system among supporters of both parties, with 34% of Democrats and 30% of Republicans expressing a lack of faith in the system's integrity. With a rise in mail-in voting and a close vote expected in swing states that don't start counting ballots until polls close, including Pennsylvania, analysts say it could be days before a winner is confirmed unless either President Trump or Joe Biden has a much better night than polls predict. FiveThirtyEight, which lists when results can be expected in every state, predicts that while it may take a while for a candidate to clinch 270 electoral votes, "we should have a pretty good idea of where things are headed on election night," with Florida and North Carolina among the states likely to deliver results promptly. (Read more Election 2020 stories.)