Le Pen-Macron Isn't Another Trump-Clinton: Pollsters

Macron has a polling lead Clinton never even came close to
By Michael Harthorne,  Newser Staff
Posted May 6, 2017 11:04 AM CDT
Le Pen-Macron Isn't Another Trump-Clinton: Pollsters
A municipal police officer walks near election campaign posters for French centrist presidential candidate Emmanuel Macron, left, and far-right candidate Marine Le Pen, in Saint Jean Pied de Port, southwestern France, Friday May 5, 2017.   (AP Photo/Bob Edme)

The final polls before Sunday's French presidential election show Emmanuel Macron with a massive 22- or 24-point lead over Marine Le Pen. And FiveThirtyEight, for its part, claims this isn't another Clinton-Trump situation: President Trump was a "normal polling error" behind Hillary Clinton the day before the presidential election, while Le Pen is "an enormous, historic polling error" behind Macron. While it's still possible for Le Pen to pull out a victory, the polls would have to be off in a way they very rarely are. Since 1969, French polls in the final two weeks before a runoff election have never been wrong by more than 8.4%, with an average error in that time of 3.9%.

If the polls hold true—or even true-ish—Macron will coast to one of the biggest victories ever in a French runoff election, CBC reports. (Though it likely won't beat Le Pen's father's 64-point loss in 2002.) Another good sign for Macron: The polls in the first round of presidential voting were "remarkably" accurate, predicting the top four candidates within a point. Still, the possibility voters on the left don't show up to vote Sunday—forced to choose between the far-right Le Pen and the banker centrist Macron—makes a Le Pen victory possible, according to France 24. One recent poll found a quarter of French voters may abstain. That would be the most in a runoff election since 1965. (More French presidency stories.)

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