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Trump Surges in Iowa Poll

President now leads by 7 points, after being tied with Biden a month ago
By Bob Cronin,  Newser Staff
Posted Nov 1, 2020 11:30 AM CST

(Newser) – President Trump has broken the tie in Iowa, a new poll shows, leading former vice president Joe Biden, 48%-41%. They were both at 47% a month ago, the Des Moines Register reports. Conducted last week, the Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll of likely voters has a margin of error of 3.4 percentage points. Trump's candidacy had not been showing much strength in the stateuntil now, though Trump won Iowa in 2016 by 9.4 percentage points. "The president is holding demographic groups that he won in Iowa four years ago, and that would give someone a certain level of comfort with their standing," the pollster said. "There's a consistent story in 2020 to what happened in 2016." One example is independents, whom Trump won last time. Biden had been leading that category in the polls, but they returned to the president in this poll.

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"Neither candidate hits 50%, so there’s still some play here," said J. Ann Selzer, who conducted the poll. But the candidates will have to move quickly. Only 4% of likely voters said they could still be won over, and just 2% said they don't have a first choice in the race. Among Biden supporters, 98% say their minds are made up, which is true of 95% of Trump backers. Still, the candidates are still paying attention to Iowa. Biden was there Friday, and Trump has an appearnce scheduled for Sunday. And Ivanka Trump plans to attend a rally in Des Moines on Monday. Democrats also are trying to help Theresa Greenfield unseat Republican Joni Ernst in Iowa's Senate race, per the Hill. The poll shows Ernst ahead, 46%-42%, just beyond the margin of error. You can read the full Iowa poll results here. (New polls show Florida and Pennsylvania close.)

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