The Odds Are in Trump's Favor

"A former president hasn't sought a nonconsecutive second term or faced criminal investigation in generations, and Trump is doing both," writes Nathaniel Rakich at FiveThirtyEight. So what are The Donald's chances of winning the Republican presidential primary? Pretty good, in Rakich's view. Yes, it's still very early but Trump currently leads in polling, registering "in the high 40s or low 50s, 20-30 points ahead of his closest competitor, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis" in most national surveys, Rakich writes. "Historically, from 1972 to 2016, candidates with high name recognition who polled in the 40s and 50s nationally won the nomination more than 75% of the time."

Former Sen. Ted Kennedy is the only figure in that category to lose out. He "lost the 1980 Democratic primary despite polling at an average of 47% in the first half of 1979," Rakich writes. Though Kennedy was up against sitting president Jimmy Carter, this "shows that Trump's nomination isn’t inevitable." The tide could easily turn against Trump. As Rakich notes, "DeSantis is polling higher than he did earlier in the year." It's also possible that an indictment of the former president "could affect Republican voters' perceptions of Trump's electability in a general election." But for now, Republican voters are on his side. One poll shows 80% have a favorable view of Trump compared to 11% with an unfavorable view.

The midterms may have hurt Trump as his "endorsees did fail to win certain highly watched contests, like the primary for Georgia governor." Overall, though, voters backed "82% of the nonincumbents he endorsed in contested Republican primaries for Senate, House and governor." Sure, Trump occasionally "endorsed candidates who were already well on their way to winning," but his endorsement did seem to benefit certain candidates, including JD Vance in the Ohio Senate race. All this suggests Republican voters are loyal to Trump "or at least his vision for the party," Rakich writes. He adds a crowded Republican field "could divide the anti-Trump vote, making it easier for him to win." (More Donald Trump stories.)