Donald Trump will likely lose Tuesday's primary in Wisconsin, and there will be great temptation when that happens to conclude that his candidacy is in real, this-time-we-mean-it trouble because of recent stumbles. Don't buy it, advises Nate Cohn in the New York Times. "His problem in Wisconsin is mainly about the state's demographics, not self-inflicted wounds," Cohn writes for the Upshot blog. "Even a 10-percentage-point loss there wouldn't necessarily indicate any shift against him." What people are forgetting is that Wisconsin has looked troublesome for Trump from the get-go.
Among other things, Wisconsin has a relatively high percentage of well-educated people, as well as religious ones, two demographic factors that don't bode well for Trump. Expect Ted Cruz to win Tuesday when the race is called. Those looking for genuine signs of trouble for Trump should instead keep an eye on his percentage of the vote. He's expected to get 35%. "If he falls short, he has lost ground because of momentum, not demographics," writes Cohn. Click for the full post. (Read more Wisconsin primary stories.)