Nate Silver: Here's What I See

And more talk around the Sunday dial
By Neal Colgrass,  Newser Staff
Posted Nov 4, 2018 1:10 PM CST
Nate Silver Gives His Verdict
Nate Silver speaks at the Grand Hotel on Mackinac Island, Mich., Thursday, May 28, 2015.   (Tanya Moutzalias/The Ann Arbor Detroit via AP)

(Newser) – FiveThirtyEight forecaster Nate Silver has made his election prediction perfectly clear—more or less. "So in the House we have Democrats with about a 4 in 5 chance of winning," he says on ABC's This Week, per ABC News. But he adds that "polls aren't always right" and says "the range of outcomes in the House is really wide. Our range, which covers 80% of outcomes, goes from, on the low end, about 15 Democratic pickups, all the way to low to mid-50s, 52 or 53. Most of those are under 23, which is how many seats they would need to win to take the House. But no one should be surprised if they only win 19 seats and no one should be surprised if they win 51 seats. Those are both extremely possible..." For more around the Sunday dial, including an ad tweeted by Trump and possible voter suppression:

  • Problem solved? "I think the point is the president's a problem solver," says RNC Chairwoman Ronna McDaniel on CBS' Face the Nation about an ad Trump tweeted about a deported Mexican immigrant who came back to America and killed two police officers, per CBS News. "...[The ad] should make every American upset and we need to fix our immigration system and the president's leading the way."
  • Fairness: "I do." So says Stacey Abrams, the Democrat running for Georgia governor, when asked on NBC's Meet the Press whether election results will be fair despite talk of opponent Brian Kemp suppressing the vote, per the Hill. "We have seen unprecedented turnout in this race from people who normally do not engage and do not vote."
  • Confidence: "I think people should go out and vote with confidence," says ranking Senate Intelligence Committee member Sen. Mark Warner on Face the Nation, per CBS News. But he slams the White House for not supporting legislation designed to improve election security. The bill "would have made sure that every polling station had a paper ballot to audit after the fact if there was ever any kind of intervention."
  • Toughness: "No one’s going to argue that Secretary Pompeo isn’t tough on Iran, and no one’s going to argue that President Trump isn’t doing the same," says Secretary of State Mike Pompeo on Fox News Sunday after Washington reimposed all sanctions on Iran this week, per Politico.
  • Expectations: "This is the toughest political map any one party has faced in 60 years," says Sen. Chris Van Hollen, a Democrat, on Fox News Sunday about his party possibly retaking the Senate, per the Hill. "We do have a path. It is a very narrow path."
See how Saturday Night Live mocked Fox News coverage of the migrant caravan. (Read more Sunday morning talk shows stories.)

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