Odds of a Brokered Convention Seem to Be Rising

The magic number is 1,990. But as New Hampshire prepares to vote on Tuesday, an analysis at the Hill suggests it's increasingly possible none of the Democratic candidates will collect the necessary number of delegates over the next several months to clinch the party nomination. Which means one thing: a brokered, or contested, convention in which the nominee will have to be sorted out in unconventional fashion. The Iowa caucuses, for example, typically winnow the field, but nobody has dropped out after this year's fiasco. The story by Jonathan Easley notes that Michael Bloomberg's entry into the race has raised the chances of a brokered convention. "It's possible, it's quite possible," says Chris Spirou, former New Hampshire Democratic Party chairman.

"I think Bloomberg entering into this thing provides a much greater possibility of a brokered convention," he adds. Another Democratic strategist in the state, Jim Demers, points out an irony: If candidates dropped out, that would help avoid such an outcome, but nobody is doing that amid the uncertainty. "There's a real possibility of a brokered convention and that in itself may be enough to serve as motivation for some who might have otherwise dropped out, to hang around longer to see if they can't have a place in this thing and play a part in determining the nominee." At least one candidate may be swayed by what happens in New Hampshire, however: The AP reports that Colorado Sen. Michael Bennet says he needs at least a fourth-place finish to go on. (More Election 2020 stories.)