We knew the economy was toast when the GDP dropped 3.8% in the last quarter. But such data lags behind the real economy, writes Dan Kadlec in Time, so watch out for these indicators of a turnaround:
- Home sales. They started the downturn, so any upswing is a good sign. One economist says he'll feel better when a key house market index rises from 8, a pitiful low, to around 20.
- Temporary Hiring. Firms that have slashed payroll will eventually see business pick up, and will turn to temp agencies for the increased workload.
- Car Sales. When vehicle sales tick up, you'll know the fear has gone. New vehicle sale rates are still slumming at around 10 million unites; look for them to increase.
- Interest rate spreads. A 10-year treasury bond yields 3%, 4 points lower than an average 10-year corporate bond. That spread says firms are failing to attract investment. A 2% difference would be better.
- Pasta sales. Pasta is cheap, so Americans buy more in tough times. Watch for shares of the American Italian Pasta Company, which ballooned to $26 from $5 in a year, to drop again.
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