X

Watch Out for These Economic Recovery Signs

Keep an eye out for slowing pasta sales
By Nick McMaster,  Newser Staff
Posted Feb 9, 2009 4:52 PM CST

(Newser) – We knew the economy was toast when the GDP dropped 3.8% in the last quarter. But such data lags behind the real economy, writes Dan Kadlec in Time, so watch out for these indicators of a turnaround:

  • Home sales. They started the downturn, so any upswing is a good sign. One economist says he'll feel better when a key house market index rises from 8, a pitiful low, to around 20.
  • Temporary Hiring. Firms that have slashed payroll will eventually see business pick up, and will turn to temp agencies for the increased workload.

story continues below

  • Car Sales. When vehicle sales tick up, you'll know the fear has gone. New vehicle sale rates are still slumming at around 10 million unites; look for them to increase.
  • Interest rate spreads. A 10-year treasury bond yields 3%, 4 points lower than an average 10-year corporate bond. That spread says firms are failing to attract investment. A 2% difference would be better.
  • Pasta sales. Pasta is cheap, so Americans buy more in tough times. Watch for shares of the American Italian Pasta Company, which ballooned to $26 from $5 in a year, to drop again.
For more indicators, click on the list below. (Read more lists stories.)

We use cookies. By Clicking "OK" or any content on this site, you agree to allow cookies to be placed. Read more in our privacy policy.
Get the news faster.
Tap to install our app.
X