Tuesday Could Deliver Big Surprises for Democrats

Michigan polling miss 'hangs over everything'
By Rob Quinn,  Newser Staff
Posted Mar 15, 2016 2:03 AM CDT
Tuesday Could Deliver Big Surprises for Democrats
Audience members cheer as Hillary Clinton speaks during a campaign event at the Grady Cole Center in Charlotte, NC, on Monday.   (AP Photo/Carolyn Kaster)

The Democratic votes on Tuesday may not provide the knockout results expected in the GOP race, but they'll still have a huge effect on the race—especially if Bernie Sanders can pull off more upset wins like the one in Michigan last week. At FiveThirtyEight, which gave Sanders just a 1% chance of winning Michigan, analysts predict that Clinton is likely to win Ohio, Florida, Illinois, North Carolina, and possibly Missouri, but they note that the Michigan polling miss "hangs over everything" and Tuesday could deliver some huge surprises.

The contests in Midwestern industrial states are ones that the Sanders campaign has eyed for a long time, and they could give him added momentum, though perhaps not enough delegates to give him a realistic chance of overtaking Clinton, Politico notes. Clinton, meanwhile, is believed to have the advantage in Florida and North Carolina, since Sanders has so far "been crushed everywhere south of the Mason-Dixon line." The Washington Post predicts that after the dust settles today, Clinton will emerge having continued her progress toward the Democratic nomination, "but ever more bloodied by her battles with Sanders." (Sanders says he ran as a Democrat for financial reasons and for media coverage.)

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