One line of thought is that the coronavirus outbreak in China could take a toll on the global economy, causing "ripple effects" in the US that spell trouble for President Trump in an election year, per the Hill. But an analysis at Axios floats the idea of the opposite happening. Specifically, it suggests that if the outbreak is contained in the spring as expected, that will lead to an uptick in the global economy through the summer and into the home stretch of the election. "Most economists predict the world will get back to business as usual by the summer—and make up for lost time with accelerated economic growth in the second half of the year," writes Dion Rabouin.
In fact, a strategist at Invesco tells Axios that "we're likely to return not just to normal but above normal because of the US-China trade deal," a reference to the "Phase One" pact signed earlier this year. The same strategist forecasts an increase in consumer and business spending. The piece notes that plenty of wild cards are at play, including an unpredictable trade move by Trump that could rile China or Europe. Still, a story at Yahoo Finance similarly predicts good news for Trump in November because of the expanding economy. Going back decades, "if there was no recession, then the incumbent actually won re-election," says Brad Neuman of investment company Alger. The stat "has virtually a flawless track record back to 1932." (Read more President Trump 2020 stories.)