An online betting site that attracted millions of dollars worth of bets related to Venezuela's future is now under fire for declaring that the US special forces raid that seized the country's leader did not amount to an American invasion. Polymarket, a fast-growing prediction platform, ruled that its US invasion of Venezuela contract was not triggered when US forces captured President Nicolás Maduro in Caracas over the weekend in an operation that left 75 people dead, followed by President Trump's statement that the US will now "run" the country, Quartz reports.
The company said the contract required the US military to launch "a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Venezuela," adding Trump's statement "referencing ongoing talks with the Venezuelan government does not alone qualify the snatch-and-extract mission to capture Maduro as an invasion." The interpretation sent odds that the US would "invade" Venezuela by a Jan. 31 deadline crashing below 5%, the Guardian reports. Nearly $8.5 million has been wagered on whether a US invasion will take place this year (another $2.7 million was wagered on a Dec. 31 deadline), with $6.5 million tied to the January end date.
Some traders who had staked tens of thousands of dollars accused Polymarket of moving the goalposts. "That a military incursion, the kidnapping of a head of state, and the takeover of a country are not classified as an invasion is plainly absurd," commented one user. This adds to controversy for Polymarket over a late December bet on Maduro's capture, which awarded the user more than $436,000 and prompted allegations of insider trading. More on that here.
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